天然气消费预测研究

【作者】 凌爱军；

【导师】 汪玉春；

【作者基本信息】 西南石油学院 ， 油气储运工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 天然气消费预测是输配气管网规划设计、优化调度当中重要决策之一。本文主要针对天然气实际消费情况，结合天然气消费的历史数据，分析了天然气消费的影响因素，提出了采用滑动平均法和动态协整法分别对天然气长、短期消费的历史数据进行预处理，同时建立了天然气长、短期消费预测数学模型。对于天然气长期消费预测，采用线性回归预测法和BP神经网络预测法进行预测，通过VB编程计算比较，BP神经网络预测法最好，预测精度范围在1.01％—8.23％。对于天然气短期消费预测，采用自回归预测法和趋势比率—温特斯组合预测法，通过VB编程计算比较，趋势比率—温特斯组合预测法最好，预测精度范围在0.78％—2.37％。更多还原

【Abstract】 The estimation on natural gas consumption is one of the most important decision-making for the layout, design, optimization and control of net pipeline’s transportation as well as admeasure. This thesis mainly takes actual condition of gas consumption as object, combined with its historical data. On the basis of these, it is analyzed the factors that affect gas consumption, and is brought forward the methods of gliding average and trends joint, in order to pretreat the historical data of long and short term consumption. Meanwhile, their mathematical models are established. For long term one, it could be forecasted by the method of multivariate regression and artificial neural network. According to the result programmed by VB language, BP neural network is the best way, with a precision scope from 1.01% to 8.23%. For short term one ,it is the methods of AR model and trend percentage-Wentes combination that were applied to forecast natural gas consumption. According to the result, trend percentage-Wentes combination is the best way, with a precision scope from 0.78% to 2.37%.更多还原