开放市场条件下，粮食规模生产者价格风险管理系统

【作者】 许伟良；

【导师】 卫龙宝；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 粮食是人们生存发展的必需品，它不仅是经济问题，也是严肃的政治问题。如何保证粮食安全，稳定粮食市场是各国政府的第一要务，象我国这样一个拥有13亿人口的大国，尤为重要。解决粮食问题的根本在于稳定粮食生产，确保粮食生产者能获得相对稳定的和一定水平的收入。在开放市场条件下，影响粮食生产者收入的一个重要因素是粮食价格风险。 本文首先论述了开放市场条件下，我国粮食生产的规模化趋势。并通过分析表明价格风险是粮食规模生产者面临的主要风险。通过对影响风险承受能力因素分析，结合粮食规模生产者初始资源禀赋和相关风险理论，笔者认为我国粮食规模生产者是风险规避者，对价格风险进行有效管理十分必要。 在论述粮食价格风险管理必要性以后，本文首先从理论的角度分析市场经济条件下粮食价格波动的成因及其特征，为建立粮食价格风险管理体系提供理论依据。接着以美国为例阐述发达国家粮食价格风险管理政策体系，为我国建立有效的粮食价格风险管理体系提供借鉴范例。 有了理论依据和相应的管理范例以后，对我国粮食价格风险管理现状及粮食规模生产者面临的现实困境展开分析，结合前述理论和范例，探讨构筑我国粮食价格风险管理的目标模式及其粮食生产者运用相关风险管理工具建立粮食价格风险管理决策系统。同时结合调查，以浙江省为例阐述目前我国粮食价格风险管理的探索实践及其粮食规模生产者在现阶段如何搞好粮食价格风险管理决策。 本文通过前述分析，拟达到为我国粮食价格风险管理体系建立完善提供有益启示和提高粮食规模生产者价格风险管理水平的目的，为保证我国粮食安全，稳定粮食市场，提高粮农收入作出一些探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the necessity of people’s survival,the provision is not only a economic issue,but also a serious political issue. It is the first priority of the government to secure the production safety and stabilize the provision market. It’s especially the case in our country with 1,3 billion people. The key to solve the provision issue is to stabilize the provision production and secure that provision producer can obtain relatively steady income. In the open market,one important factor influence the income of provision producer is provision price risk.Firstly,the article discuses the scale trend of provision production in the open market,then the theoritcal analysis shows that price risk is the main risk that provision scale producer faces. By analyzing the factor influence the risk endure capability,and combining the provision scale producer original endowment theory and other related theory,the author think that provision scale producer is risk evader,so it’s quite important to conduct effective price risk.After discussing the need and importance of provision price risk management,the article analyzed the reasons and characteristics of provision price fluctuation in market economy in theory,provided the theory base of the article. Then the article took the example of U.S,explained the provision risk management of the policy’s selections in developed country,setting a example for our country.With the theory and practice,the article analyzed the reality of provision price risk management in our country and the difficulties face the provision scale producers. Then the author discussed the target mode of provision risk management of our country and the decision support system of provision risk management. Combining with the investigation,and taking the example of Zhejiang Province,the article illustrated the practice of recent provision price risk management of our country and the measures taken to make sound provision price risk management decisions by provision scale producers.By the discussions above,the article is aimed to provide some suggestions to establish provision price risk management system of our country,to improve the price risk management level of provision scale producer,so as to secure the provision safety and increase the farmer’s income.更多还原