发展中国家的货币替代研究

【作者】 谢讴；

【导师】 蔡慧娟；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 70年代以来，随着世界经济一体化的加速，发展中国家金融自由化的程度不断提高，这不仅表现在利率、汇率的逐渐自由化，也表现在货币投机的自由化、金融交易逃避政府管理和监督的自由化以及货币兑换的自由化上，由此产生的大规模的资本流动，使得发展中国家的货币替代问题日益严重。在中央银行垄断一国货币发行后，"货币替代"便指的是在本国出现较为严重的通货膨胀或出现一定的汇率贬值预期时，公众出于降低机会成本与取得相对较高收益的考虑，减少持有价值相对较低且不稳定的本国货币，增加持有价值相对较高且比较稳定的外国货币的现象。但货币替代并不仅仅是一种简单的货币兑换现象，它从多方面影响着一国的宏观经济，例如：扰乱一国正常的金融秩序，影响货币政策的独立性和有效性；削弱政府的财政税基；造成一国汇率水平的剧烈波动等等。因此，深入了解货币替代现象的成因、途径、影响，找到防范货币替代的政策手段，对于发展中国家在开放条件下，保持宏观经济的均衡发展，维护本国货币体系的稳定，有着重要的作用。我国作为一个发展中国家，正处于从封闭的计划经济到开放的市场经济转轨的过程中，已基本实现了人民币经常项目下的自由兑换，将来还要实现资本项目下的自由兑换，经济的开放与发展造就了货币替代的现实可能性，而且这种货币替代必然同其他国家曾经出现的替代有着诸多相似之处，因此，尽管本文主要讨论的是东欧、拉美等其他发展中国家的货币替代现象及对策，但希望其中一些规律性的结论也能有助于我国制定有效的政策来防范货币替代的风险，降低货币替代对国内经济的不利影响，以维护开放经济体系的稳定和实现国民经济的稳步增长。从全文逻辑顺序来看，首先是对货币替代相关概念的介绍，然后<WP=3>对货币替代的成因进行阐述，比较了发达国家和发展中国家货币替代的不同，接着分析了货币替代对发展中国家经济可能造成的各种影响，并在此基础上论述了防范货币替代的各种政策措施及其有效性，最后得出全文的结论。全文分为五个部分。前言部分首先简单介绍了发展中国家货币替代问题产生的背景。货币替代现象是伴随着发展中国家经济的开放而出现的，对一国的宏观经济产生巨大影响。第一章主要介绍货币替代的定义及衡量指标，为下文的进一步研究奠定基础。本章的第一节首先考察了货币替代的定义，重点介绍了狭义货币替代、资本替代和广义货币替代之间的联系与区别，认为广义货币替代是狭义货币替代和资本替代的综合，并提出以广义货币替代作为本文论述的对象。接下来第二节介绍了货币替代的衡量指标，主要有绝对量指标和相对量指标两种，但后者在实际研究中似乎更可行。第二章探讨了决定货币替代的因素。在第一节中首先列举了货币替代的直接决定因素，包括：制度性因素、规模因素、收益率因素及风险因素。然后对比分析了发达国家和发展中国家货币替代发生原因的不同。本章的重点是第二节，主要分析了货币替代对经济的影响。首先介绍了货币替代对汇率的影响。在存在货币替代的情况下，货币当局无法控制货币供应量，同时影响汇率的变量增加，所以汇率更容易波动，对政策可信度的敏感性也越强，而且反通胀的汇率政策导致的本外币之间的大规模兑换，会造成福利的分配效应。接着文章论述了货币替代对国内货币需求量的衡量、货币政策中间目标选择和货币政策独立性的影响。结论是，在货币替代情况下，一国的货币需求要受到外国通货膨胀率的影响，货币需求更不稳定，同时利率函数和货币供应量函数变得更复杂，货币政策中间目标的可测性和可控性降低，最终削弱了一国货币政策的独立性和有效性。最后研究了货币替代对财政政策的影响。主要是削弱了税基并可能促升通胀税率。在第三节中，列举了东欧国家和拉美国家的货币替代现象，并分析比较了<WP=4>各自的特点。东欧国家的货币替代现象是转轨国家体制改革过程中遇到的问题，它影响了政府货币政策的有效性，同时降低了铸币税收入，这可能会抑制过高的通货膨胀，但如果政府通过提高普通税税率或开征新税来弥补财政赤字的话，则会扭曲一国的经济结构。拉美国家的货币替代属于发展中国家经济发展过程中，经济的发展与金融自由化改革不能协调所带来的问题。拉美国家的货币替代现象表现出明显的迟滞现象，即货币替代率是随着通胀水平上升而加剧，但却不随着通胀率的下降而很快的降低。这主要是因为新金融产品的设计和适应，本外币的兑换都是有成本的。第三章是全文的重点，主要是从三个方面论述了发展中国家面对货币替代所能采取的措施。第一节分析了反货币替代的政策措施及其有效性。从成本—收益原则来看，要想遏制货币替代的进一步加剧，首先必须促使货币替代的收益不足以弥补替代的成本，从而令微观的经济主体丧失进行替代的动机。而要想从根本意义上消除货币替代，恢复建立在本币流通基础上的金融秩序，则还需令反货币替代的收益大于反替代的成本，从微观层面上激发起反替代的动机。反货币替代的政策措施，包括货币政策、汇率政策、财政政策及直接的外汇管制措施等，其有效性都要依据这个原则来评价。事实是这些政策并不能保?更多还原

【Abstract】 National currencies are tradable goods par excellence. They can be easily carried across borders, and some of them enjoy wide recognition around the world. There is thus a tendency for currencies that display high inflation to be replaced by currencies like US dollar that has earned a reputation for being relatively successful in maintaining its purchasing power over time. In fact ,currency substitution has influenced more and more developing countries’ macroeconomy. This paper provides a selective review of the issues related to the phenomenon of "currency substitution," defined as the rapid erosion of the value of domestic currency leads agents to substitute it by foreign currency in either any or all of the basic functions of money. This phenomenon is also simply referred to as dollarisation. The phenomenon of currency substitution raises many interesting and difficult questions, both from policy and analytical perspectives.Our focus will be on policy and analytical issues that are relevant to developing countries. There are no clear-cut answers to most of these questions, which makes any discussion of currency substitution a rather demanding, but fascinating, endeavor. This paper discusses those issues that, in our judgment, are the most relevant for developing countries. The discussion proceeds as follows. In Section I ,we introduce the concept and the measure of currency substitution. A note on terminology is due. In this paper ,currency substitution is used to indicate that a foreign currency serves as a unit of account or as a store of value, and not necessarily as a medium of exchange.The effects of currency substitution on the economy of developing countries are discussed in Section II. First, we discuss the effects of currency substitution on the exchange rate. Standard models suggest that the higher the elasticity of substitution between the two currencies, the<WP=7>higher the shift from domestic to foreign currency induced by a fall in expected inflation, and thus the higher the appreciation of the domestic currency. Hence, a sufficiently high elasticity of substitution is likely to make the exchange rate extremely volatile in response to policy changes and/or credibility problems. Second, The issue of monetary policy under currency substitution is reviewed . Since currency substitution complicates the money supply and demand ,it reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and constrains policymakers’ ability to implement economic policy. Finally,we analyze how currency substitution affects both the level and variability of the inflation tax and revenues from money creation.Currency substitution transfers the seigniorage income and could spur the improvement of inflationaru rate. Policy issue, analyzed in Section III, is whether currency substitution should be encouraged or not. Views about the optimal degree of currency substitution cover a very wide spectrum. They range from the idea that some countries should completely give up issuing their own money and adopt a foreign currency ("full dollarization" i.e., adopting a foreign currency as the only legal tender, as in Panama), to the notion that every effort should be made to induce the use of the domestic currency. This section discusses these two polar views. We argue that there does not seem to be a good case for discouraging the use of foreign currency. A second approach follows the optimal taxation literature and examines whether the presence of currency substitution makes it optimal to resort to the inflation tax. Such forced de-dollarizations often have opposite effects to those intended by the authorities. Instead, it seems to have stimulated the capital flight problem and simply driven the dollarized economy underground.On the other hand, the case for encouraging the use of foreign currency is also less than obvious, mainly due to the inflationary consequences of higher currency substitution. The extreme measure of fully dollarizing the economy may put unnecessary constraints on the economy and render the banking system more更多还原