【作者】 张运来；

【导师】 孙托宁； 王涛；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文通过阅读、归纳大量的国内外文献，并在中国旅游学院对有关专家进行了学习和咨询，认识到国内旅游需求的研究有待于进一步深入，特别是影响国内旅游需求的具体因素以及国内旅游需求的潜在的需求量的分析和预测一直是该领域的空白。文章在介绍国内旅游需求总量现状的基础上，采用定性和计量经济学的定量方法，分析并揭示了影响国内旅游需求的主要因素。本文又对国际上常用的旅游需求预测方法进行了总结，并结合国内旅游需求预测，检验了各种预测方法的适用性。最后得出适合我国国内旅游需求预测的方法，并预测了近5年的国内旅游需求量。本文在结论部分讨论了进一步扩大和激发国内旅游需求的具体措施。论文旨在为国家宏观旅游管理部门和国内旅游经营企业进一步挖掘居民国内旅游需求提供理论支持和方法论的指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 After studying and summarizing a large amount of materials, and studying and counseling from experts of China Tourism college in Peking. The author realized that the study of domestic tourist demand is in urgent. On the basis of introduction about the status of domestic tourist needs, the affecting factors on domestic tourist needs were analyzed by qualitative and quantitative methods. The other part of the paper gave introductions about some kinds of forecasting techniques firstly, then selected the most suitable techniques on domestic tourist amount forecast, and five-year’s forecast was made. Some suggests were also made. The aim of the paper was to give some theoretic supports and methodological directions exciting domestic tourist needs further for government and corporation.更多还原