【作者】 李燕辉；

【导师】 漆莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 统计学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 流动人口是我国在建设社会主义市场经济体系中遇到的一个重大课题。近年来，尤其是90年代以来，随着改革开放与经济的发展，流动人口的数量逐年增加，在一些大中城市，流动人口所带来的影响更加明显，涉及到人们衣食住行的各个方面，引起了人们的普遍关注。过去，由于历史的原因和整个社会生产力水平的局限，流动人口数量很少，在全国人口变动中并不引人注目。学术界对流动人口的研究也在相当长时期几乎处于空白状态，而政府部门对流动人口的管理工作也一直是个薄弱环节。由于缺乏正确的管理方法，流动人口难免出现盲目、无序的流动，给社会经济带来巨大的损失。对流动人口进行研究，寻找适当的管理方法，发挥流动人口对经济增长的积极作用就显得迫在眉睫。本文从对流动人口定义的界定入手，详细分析了流动人口产生的主要原因，是由于改革开放以来地区之间、城乡之间经济发展不平衡所致。本文列举了大量详实的数据资料，从流动人口的流向、分布、结构特点、滞留时间、家庭化等方面对流动人口的特征进行了深刻的剖析，并对其如何影响经济的发展作了阐述，在定性分析流动人口与经济发展之间的互动关系的基础上，进一步运用统计方法、计量方法对两者之间的关系进行定量分析，准确测定了流动人口对经济发展的影响。虽然流动人口能够促进经济的发展，但是城市对流动人口的容纳是有限度的，如果流动人口无限度地增长，最终会阻碍城市经济的发展。因此，有必要对如何控制流动人口的适度规模进行探讨。本文根据对历史数据、图形进行的分析，选择合适的模型对流动人口进行预测，并根据城市的经济增长情况确定适度的流动人口规模，以便为城市的管理工作提供依据。最后，文章提出了适应经济发展的流动人口管理模式，以期对实际工作有一定的指导作用。本文内容共分四个部分进行阐述，结构如下：第一部分 流动人口概论这一部分首先根据本文的研究目的和需要对流动人口的定义进行了界定，并对改革开放以来的流动人口数量迅速增长的原因进行了详细的分析，指出经济动因是人口流动的最根本原因。<WP=6>第二部分 流动人口的特征分析 这一部分主要内容是对流动人口的现状进行分析，流动人口的数量不断扩大，新的特征也随之呈现。文章主要从流动人口的流向与分布、构成、结构特征（包括性别结构、年龄结构、文化结构和产业结构）、滞留时间、家庭化等方面分析了流动人口的新特征。同时根据流动人口的特征，剖析了流动人口对城乡社会经济产生的积极作用和消极影响。第三部分 流动人口对经济增长影响的统计分析这一部分是本文的重点和难点。首先从流动人口对经济增长的影响进行动态分析，得出流动人口与经济增长有着同方向变动的关系，并运用统计学的相关分析方法和计量分析方法对两者的关系进行定量的研究，通过建立计量经济模型测定流动人口对经济增长的数量影响。其次，选择适当的数学模型对流动人口数量进行预测，根据城市经济发展的实际需要确定适度的流动人口规模。第四部分 适应经济发展的流动人口管理模式这一部分在阐述现有流动人口管理模式的基础上，指出其存在的不足之处，并提出了适应经济发展的流动人口管理模式——社区化管理模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the construction of our country’s socialist-marketing economy system, floating population is an important task. Since these years, especially since the 1990s, with the reform and economic development, the quantity of floating population has increased year by year. In some big and medium-sized cities, its effects are more obvious , they are related to all fields of people’s life. This has absorbed our attention. Before, because of the historical reason and limit of the level of the whole productive forces, the quantity of floating population is small, so the research on it has been in blank condition for a long time. At the same time, the management of floating population by government was very weak. Thus, it’s hard to avoid the blind and disorder float of people, which has no good to socie-economic development. We should make a study of floating population, find proper management methods and then promote economic development. In this assay, I firstly give a definition to floating population, then make a detailed analysis on the main reason for the appearance of it. There are many data materials in the assay, based on them, I can do analysis on the characteristics of floating population about the floating direction、distribution、structure characteristics and detaining time etc. I also explain how floating population affects economic development. After the qualitative analysis on the relation between them, the quantitative analysis is followed, in which the statistical method and econometric method are utilized. Floating population can promote economic development, but there is a limit to accommodate them for the city. So it is necessary to study how to control the appropriate size. The author select a proper model to calculate it according to the analysis on the data and graph. Finally, the assay brings forward a management pattern suitable to economic development, I hope it can do something to the actual management.This assay has four parts:Part one Definition of floating population In this part, I firstly give definition to floating population on the basis of my research purpose and need, then analyze the reason for the quick increase of it since the Reform and Open, pointing out economic factor is the most fundamental reason. <WP=8>Part two Analysis on characteristics of floating populationThe main content of this part is to analyze the current situation of floating population. New characteristics appear as its quantity increased. This assay analyzes the new characteristics in detail, which include floating direction and distribution、composition、structure characteristics(sex characteristics、age characteristics、culture characteristics and industry characteristics)and detaining time etc. At the same time, I discuss the positive effects and negative influence of floating population on rural and urban socie-economic development.Part three Statistical analysis on the effects of floating population on economic developmentThis part is the emphasis and difficult point of this assay. Firstly, the author have a trendy analysis on the effects and get the result that the economic development has the same changing direction as floating population . Then I utilize related analysis and econometric analysis, study the relation between them qualitatively and put up a model to calculate the effects accurately. Secondly, I select another proper model to forecast the quantity of floating population, determining the appropriate size according to the condition of economic development.Part four Management pattern of floating population suitable to economic developmentIn this part, the assay expounds the existing management pattern and its problem, then brings forward the pattern suitable to economic development——communalization management更多还原