【作者】 万荣荣；

【导师】 周秉根；

【作者基本信息】 安徽师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 区域可持续发展研究的对象是由人口(P)、资源(R)、环境(E)及其发展(D)所组成的区域PRED复合系统。区域可持续发展研究的目标是实现区域PRED系统各因素在时间、空间、功能上的动态协调。其研究的主要内容就是要揭示区域PRED系统中人口、资源、环境和社会经济各要素的结构、功能、动态变化和相互作用关系，并在此基础上探讨保证其持续协调发展的战略及调控措施等。地方是实施可持续发展战略的主战场，只有把各地方行政功能区作为可持续发展的基本组织单元，才能有效地进行“人口、资源、环境、发展”四位一体的综合管理。作为发展中的人口大国，我国目前又处于经济体制转型时期，PRED系统各要素间的矛盾尤为突出，县级行政单位是落实可持续发展行动的基础单元和关键环节，因此，作为全国PRED系统基础的县域PRED系统演变研究更是迫在眉睫。绩溪县，作为徽文化发源地之一的历史文化名城，由于长期不合理的生产活动，自然和社会经济发展问题较为突出，对这一地区PRED系统演变进行研究具有十分典型的意义。 本文尝试通过GIS技术与定量化分析方法相结合，对绩溪县PRED系统时间演变及空间分异进行了研究，将复杂的系统简单化处理，从中探求其动态演变规律及互动机制。进行了如下内容的研究： 1、绩溪县PRED系统时间演变研究。根据主成分分析法(PCA)选取PRED系统指标并建立指标体系，利用改进层次分析法(IAHP)确立各指标权重，在综合评价模型中计算PRED系统指数，以此为基础来分析全县PRED系统于1981～2000年间演变，通过相关分析法分析PRED系统及子系统间互动机制，并利用GM(1，1)模型对其发展趋势进行预测。 2、绩溪县PRED系统空间演变研究。应用GIS建立全县乡镇级行政区划空间数据库，并借助数据库管理系统(DBMS)建立1985～2000年全县分乡镇PRED系统基础数据库，应用GIS特有的空间分析功能，将相关的空间数据与属性数据进行匹配处理，建立“空间—属性一体化数据库”，在此基础上，生成PRED系统空间演变图、动态类型图，并进一步分析其空间分异及演变规律。 3、绩溪县PRED系统可持续发展对策。根据绩溪县PRED系统时空演变研究结果，提出PRED系统可持续发展对策，为绩溪县制定与实施可持续发展战略提供依据。 本文的研究方法对其它县域的PRED系统演变研究有一定的参考价值，其研究成果对于同类山区县走可持续发展道路具借鉴意义，同时也为各级政府与相关部门多领域的应用研究提供更多的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 The object of study on regional sustainable development is regional composite PRED system , which is composed of Population(P),Resources(R),Environment(E) and Development(D). The aim of study on regional sustainable development is to discover the structure, function, dynamic evolution and interaction of the elements of PRED system, and to approach the strategy and controlling measure to assure sustainable development, Region is the main place to carry out sustainable development. When administrative functional regions become basic organizing units, the multiple management of the factors of Population, Resources, Environment and Development is efficient. As a heavy-populated country, china is faced with economic system reform, and the elements of PRED system are full of contradiction. County level administrative units are key segment of sustainable development, so it is urgent to study county level PRED system evolution. Jixi County, birthplace of Hui culture, was very famous in history. Long-term unreasonable exploitation result in natural, social and economic problems. So it is typical and significant to study PRED system evolution in Jixi County.Based on geographic information system and quantitative analysis, the evolution and spacial difference are studied in this thesis. Complicated PRED system is oversimplified to investigate its dynamic evolution law and interaction mechanism. The followings are studied.1. Studies on evolution of PRED system in Jixi County. The indicators are selected by Principal Component Analysis. The weights of index are determined by Improved Analytical Hierarchy Process, the index of PRED system are calculated by Comprehensive Evaluation Model, which is -the basis of analysis on the evolution of PRED system form 1981 to 2000 in Jixi County. The interaction mechanism of PRED system and its sub-systems are approached by Correlation Analysis. The trace of PRED evolution is analyzed by Gray model.2. Studies on spacial evolution of PRED system in Jixi County .The special data base of village and town is established by Geographical Information System. The basic data base of village and town during 1985-2000 is established by Data Base Management System. Through the exclusive spacial analysis function, spacial data base and attribute data base are mated into a spacial-attribute -unified data base. Then the spacial evolution maps and dynamic type map of PRED system are formed ,and spacial difference and evolution law are further studied.3. Studies on sustainable development tactics of PRED system in Jixi County. On the basis of the results of study on spatio-temporal evolution of PRED system in Jixi County, the tactics of sustainable development are put forward, which is the foundation and carry out sustainable development strategy.The study methods of this thesis have certain ’referential value for study on PRED system evolution in other Counties .The results of this thesis not only have particular reference for similar mountain counties to go a sustainable developing way , but also provide more possibility for governments and relevant departments to launch application researches.更多还原