【作者】 格日勒图；

【导师】 郭连生；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 森林培育学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以位于阴山北麓生态脆弱带的武川县为研究对象，通过主成份聚类分析将武川县划分为东南部山地农业区、北部丘陵农业区、西北部风蚀沙化农牧结合区和西南部山地农牧结合区等四个退耕还林生态经济类型区。分析了各区的农业经济发展状况，揭示了其农、林、牧总体发展水平；采用灰色关联度分析方法，对种植业和牧业发展进行了科学分析，获得了影响种植业和牧业发展的主导因子和发展方向。根据武川县历年国民经济统计资料，建立GM（1，1）预测模型，进而导出退耕面积方程，预测了从2000至2010期间各生态经济类型区的每年最小退耕面积和最大退耕还林面积。在此基础上进一步阐述了四个生态经济类型区的林业发展潜力和实现林业可持续发展的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Wuchuan County locating the ecological vulnerable region of Northern foot of Yin Mountain was studied and divided by the principal components cluster into the four ecological economical regions of returning farmland to forest land, Southeast mountain agricultural region, North hillside agricultural region, Northwest wind erosion and sandy region of joining agriculture and herbage, and Southwest region of joining agriculture and herbage. And their ecological developing state and level of agriculture, herbage and forestry was analyzed. Using indefinite relative dimension their development of plantation and herbage was analyzed and the main factor effecting their development and the future developing ways were obtained. Based on the statistical data of National Economy of Wuchuan County, the GM(1,1) Predicting Model was established; the equation of returning farmland area was induced and the minimal area and the maximal area of returning farmland of each ecological economical region were predicted during 2000 and 2010. The forestry developing potentiality and the ways of realizing Forestry sustainable development of the four ecological economical regions were discussed further.更多还原