【作者】 施青春；

【导师】 徐寿波；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 股票市场在国外已有数百余年的发展历史，对全球经济产生了深远的影响，国外对股票市场的研究也相当深入，提出了一系列的股市评价指标。然而，股票市场在新中国的发展从其产生到现在只有十来年的时间，我们认识股票市场的时间还不长，并且影响股票市场的因素是多方面的，导致我国股市具有一些特色，例如我国现阶段股市中的股权结构、市盈率、换手率等方面就具有一定的特色。鉴于此，本论文以发达国家股票市场的发展历史和现状，以及其理论成果和实践经验为研究蓝本，对股市中的股票投资和股票投机两大行为进行了科学的界定；在参考国内股票市场近几年的发展现况和实践经验，并在对股票市盈率进行了技术经济分析的基础上，结合股票市盈率和社会资本平均报酬率，本文提出了更适合评价一般股票市场的综合市盈率指标，通过对它的应用，可量化近年来股票投资和股票投机对我国股市的贡献度。根据两者对股市的贡献度，可掌握我国股市特征，加强对我国股市的宏观调控，促进我国经济更好发展。 本论文共分5章。第1章绪论，介绍了本论文的选题背景、研究的方法及论文的框架。第2章股票市场行为，对股票市场行为进行了阐述，科学辨别了股票投资与股票投机两者的经济涵义，分析了两者对股市的作用。第3章我国股票市场现况分析，对我国股市存在一定的股票过度投机进行了论证，对引起其存在的各种原因进行了分析，并提出了一定的规范建议。第4章股票市盈率研究及其应用，通过对股票市盈率的技术经济分析，发现股票市盈率计算方法有一定的缺陷性和在应用上具有一定的局限性后，提出了综合市盈率的概念，然后通过对综合市盈率在我国股市中的应用，计算出了近年来股票投资和股票投机对我国股市的贡献度；第5章未来我国股市的展望，分析了对我国股市发展有影响的几种因素及加入WTO对我国股市的影响，最后对未来我国股票市场的发展趋势提出了几点看法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Stock Market has been developing for hundreds of years abroad, and it has a far-reaching influence on the global economy. At the same time, the study of stock market has been deeply discussed abroad, and they have put forward a series of guidelines to appraise the stock market. However, because the period from its emergence to present in China is only about ten years after PRC was bom, the time we knew stock market is very short, and there are many factors can affect stock market, the stock market has many characteristics in the reform developing stage of china, for example, the stockholder frame, the price-earnings ratio and the exchange ratio of stock. Therefore, considering the development history, the current situation, the theoretical results and the practical experience of the developed countries, this paper defines the economics meanings of the stock investment behavior and the stock speculation behavior. Based on the technique economics analysis of price-earnings ratio of the stock market, referring to the developing current situation and practical experience of our country’s stock market over the past years, the paper puts forward the definition of the Synthesis Price-earning Ratio which is more adapted to the common stock market, by which we can measure the contribution to the stock market of the stock speculation and the stock investment of the recent years. The paper has considered the price-earnings ratio and the Rate return regulation during the analysis process. According to the contributions, we can master the characteristics of the stock market in order to reinforce the macros control to the stock market and promote the economic developing fluently of our country.There are five chapters in this paper. The first one is an introduction to the background, the research method and the frame of the thesis. The second one is the behavior of the stock market, which distinguishes the economics meanings between the stock investment and the stock speculation, and analyzes the effect of them to the stock market. The third one is the analysis of the current situation in Chinese stock market, which shows that there are excess stock speculations in Chinese stock marker and analyzes all kinds of causes; In the end, this chapter puts forward some criterion views to the stock market. The fourth one is the research and application of the Price-earnings ratio, which find some mistakes in the calculating method and the limitation in its application of the Price-earning ratio; this chapter brings forward the synthesis Price-earning ratio, by which we can measure the contribution to the stock market of the stock speculation and the stock investment. The fifth one is the prospect of the stock market in China; it analyzes several factors including China’s entrance to WTO, which can effect the development of our country’s stock market and puts forward some opinions to the development trend of our county’s stock market.更多还原