【作者】 魏文；

【导师】 陈文华； 卢献彪； 李立新；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 机械设计与理论， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以Y11X—2221圆形低频电连接器为研究对象，对可靠性试验方法和试验数据的统计分析进行了系统、深入的研究。 首先，对国内外可靠性研究的发展历史和现状，可靠性试验的方法和发展趋势，可靠性统计分析方法和存在的问题，以及航天电连接器可靠性研究的现状和存在的问题进行了回顾和评述。 其次，通过对电连接器进行失效机理的研究分析，结合概率统计理论，建立了电连接器在振动应力作用下的可靠性统计模型，即逆幂律—威布尔模型，为电连接器可靠性试验方案的制定和试验数据的统计分析奠定了基础。 第三，通过对定时截尾、定时测试试验数据下各种统计分析方法的分析，运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对最好线性无偏估计、最好线性不变估计、简单线性无偏估计、最小二乘中位秩估计以及极大似然估计等统计分析方法进行了精度比较和分析。在无偏性和均方误差最小的意义下，得出了上述估计方法的优劣，为定时截尾、定时测试试验数据下的可靠性分析奠定了基础。 第四，提出并研究了无失效数据类型和DOOF数据类型下电连接器的可靠性分析方法，提出了以不完全Beta分布为一级先验分布，超参数为[0，1]上的均匀分布作为失效概率先验分布的多层Bayes方法，结合加权最小二乘法解决了产品在无失效数据和DOOF数据下的可靠性分析问题。 第五，采用极大似然估计法和加权最小二乘法对电连接器加速寿命试验数据进行了统计分析，得到了电连接器可靠性特征量的估计值，验证了电连接器可靠性统计模型和DOOF数据下可靠性分析方法的正确性。 最后，对全文的内容进行了总结，并指出了电连接器可靠性试验和分析研究中需要进一步研究的内容和本基金课题下一阶段的工作方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this dissertation, the model Yl IX ?221 electrical connector as the object, reliability test method and test data statistical analysis method of electrical has been deeply researched.First, briefly stated the reliability research developing history and current situation at home and abroad, the reliability test method and developing trends, then statistical analysis method and existing problems, and electrical connector reliability research’s current situation and existing problems, iSecond, through analyzing the failure mechanism of electrical connector, and combining with the theory of probability and statistics, set up a reliability statistical model of electrical connector affected upon vibration stress, which is the Anti -power Law-Weibull Model, laid a foundation for working out electrical connector reliability test plans and treating electrical connector test data.Third, the accuracy of parameter estimate methods for the 2-parameters Weibull distribution and four different estimate methods for failure time based on the life of fixed time measurement are discussed. In the sense of mean squares, maximum likelihood estimator, best linear unbiased estimator, taest linear invariant estimator, and good linear estimator are contracted.Fourth, proposed and researched the reliability analysis method under the zero- failure data and DOOF data. Based on the part Beta distribution as the prior distribution of failure probability p, = P(T<r,} , hierarchical Bayesian estimate method was discussed, obtain the reliability analysis method under the zero-failure data and the DOOF data.Fifth, through statistical analysis of electrical connector accelerated life test data, verified that the reliability statistical model of electrical connector and the reliability statistical method under DOOF data are both correct. Applied the maximum likelihood estimate method with the least squares estimator of test data as preliminary estimate and weighted least square estimate method separate to treat the different kind test data,obtained the estimator of electrical connector reliability characteristic values.Eventually, gave a conclusion to research content of entire dissertation, and proposed the contest of electrical connector reliability test research.更多还原