【作者】 王雪光；

【导师】 李德源；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 现代物流业是海运发展的一个趋势。 由于集装箱运输的发展，物流理论在航运企业得到了广泛的应用。全世界的班轮公司都非常重视物流业，纷纷成立物流子公司。 与个世界物流业不断增长的趋势相悖，中国专门从事物流业经营的公司的发展并不尽如人意，目前许多货运人由于找不到一个值得信赖的专业物流公司而不得不自己充当这一角色。 物流时代是一场革命，中国航运企业如何抓住机遇迎接挑战是这场革命成败之关键。从现代物流业的发展趋势及国外船公司重视物流业发展的情况来看，我国航运业必须打入到物流业中，并应尽快发展物流业。这是因为：一、物流具有系统综合和总成本控制的思想；二、物流具有市场服务的观点。所以物流管理的宗旨是在满足用户的条件下，使系统总费用最小，或是以一定的系统资源投入，使用户服务水平达到最高。 笔者回顾了中国物流发展历程并对发展现状进行了分析，指出了中国发展现代物流业必要性和紧迫性。 通过对我国航运业发展面临的挑战及航运业发展物流服务具备的条件的分析及我国运输业发展物流的需求与提供能力的分析，提出了我国航运业发展物流服务的建议以及应注意的问题。 在定量分析方面，笔者运用组合预测模型。重点解决了各种权系数的准确确定问题，克服了以前本专业论文此项系数主观随意确定的弊端。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern logistics is the oriention of shipping transportation.Due to development of container transportation, logistics theory is made in shipping enterprises. In the world, the liner corporation all emphasize logistics through founding sole logistics company.In stead of increasing, Chinese logistics company develop slowly, many shippers can’t find a logistics which can provide valuable services, so that they have to act as the partner themselves.Logistics times like a revolution, whether China shipping can master the chance or nor connects tightly with their success or failure in this revolution. In view of the development of modern logistics and the situation of foreign shipping company emphasizing on logistics, our shipping enterprises have to rush into logistics industry and develop logistics as soon as possible. The reason is as follows:1 .System and cost controlling thinking is filled into logistics;2.Logistics emphasize service; so that tenet of logistics is to make cost least under satisfying account or make service most valueful under some certain fund.The author review the history of China logistics and analyzing the situation, at last the thesis point out Chinese shipping develop logistics is necessary and pressing.After analyzing the environment that Chinese shipping encounter in developing logistics and the conditions that Chinese shipping have mastered, and the ability that Chinese shipping can provideand accounts need, the author put forwards the suggestion that China shipping develop logistics and problems that we should pay attention to.In the side of quantity analysis, the author applied the compounding mathematic model to forecast the quantity of China logistics in future.In the papers, the author mainly solved the coefficient of per forecasting method, make the past shortcomings of thesis of our specialty in this side solved successfully.更多还原