【作者】 夏忠；

【导师】 黄强； 安盛勋；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水利工程， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 加快黄河上游水电资源的开发，符合西部大开发的要求，对实现国家资源优化配置、将洁净水电能源东送具有重要意义。但是长期以来，在电力市场方面，缺乏科学、可靠的电网负荷需求预测及市场供需分析；在开发顺序方面，缺乏水电站开发顺序理论方法依据的支持，影响了开发的层次和速度；在开发管理模式方面，缺乏一套行之有效的开发、经营及管理的理论体系，比如水电开发与水资源综合利用及与生态环境的关系等，都应纳入流域统一规划、统一管理的水电开发利用管理体系中。所有这些问题的存在，严重制约了黄河上游水电梯级滚动开发。本文从分析黄河上游水电能源开发现状入手，提出以滚动开发体制为基础的战略目标，找出目前和近期开发中存在的主要几个关键技术问题。首先针对水电市场化问题，即在厂网分家、竟价上网的形势下，水电发展的优势何在进行了探讨；其次应用灰色与神经网络模型对受电区电力负荷进行了中长期预测与评价；通过梯级开发顺序的基本理论与方法研究，得出黄河上游水电梯级开发顺序的两个备选方案。最后重点研究黄河上游水电开发滚动模式，分析回顾我国水电开发管理的历史，结合国内外先进的管理模式，提出了黄河上游水电梯级开发的模式。通过三大问题的研究，为黄河上游水电实现梯级滚动开发奠定了重要的理论基础，并对西部大开发战略的实施具有重要的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 To expedite the exploitation of hydroelectric resources of Huanghe upstream meets the request of Western Development, and is significant to the strategically overall arrangement of realizing the optimization deployment of resource and transporting clean energy to the east But, for a long time, in the electric market, the supply-and-demand analysis and the science-oriented, reliable forecast of electric network load is absent. In the developing gradation, the support of theory about hydroelectric plants’ developing gradation is absent. In the pattern of management and development, a theoretical system of developing, management is absent, such as the relation of the synthetically utilization of hydroelectric development and water resource and environment should be brought into the unified planning and managing system of the valley. All the problems mentioned above, restrict the cascade development of Huanghe River’s hydroelectric. Under the premise of actuality of analysis of Huanghe River’s hydroelectric development, the author brought forward a strategically aim based on the cascade development system, found key technical issues of the development at present and in the near future. Firstly, aiming the marketing of hydroelectricity, that is, under the situation of separated plant and network, and entering the market by the competition of price, the author analyzed the advantages of the development of hydroelectricity. Secondly the author made a medium-long-period forecast and evaluation of the electric load of the accepting-electricity area by gray-and-nerve network matrix. Finally the author studied the pattern of cascade hydroelectric development of Huanghe upstream, analyzed and retrospect China’s hydroelectric development and management, integrated with Chinese and abroad advanced pattern of management, brought out the pattern of the cascade hydroelectric development of Huanghe upstream. Though the study of basic theory and solution of cascade development gradation, the author brought two projects of the gradation of cascade hydroelectric development of Huanghe upstream.更多还原