【作者】 周哲；

【导师】 熊黑钢；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 地理学科、自然地理学， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 区域PRED系统将区域人口、资源、环境和发展四个子系统的协调发展定为目标。对它的研究始于本世纪七十年代，从最初的通过指标体系描述发展到现在的尝试定量评价，经历了短短二十年。对区域PRED系统的研究本身是一个较为复杂的工作，在对该系统的研究中，利用数量化的方法进行研究无疑更为科学、客观，但是由于起步较晚，对该系统的研究到目前为止还是以定性描述为主。 顺应国际上定量化研究的趋势，我国的学者也尝试着展开对区域PRED系统的定量研究。在有限的定量评价模型中，可持续度模型突出了主要表现特征指标，选取最关键、最主要的指标来构建模型，定义了发展阶段因子、经济发展因子、人口增长因子、能源消耗因子和环境质量因子来定量评价区域PRED系统的协调发展程度。该模型用于评价工业城市时具有较强的可行性和实用性。但是由于我国幅员辽阔，环境构成复杂多样，造成环境脆弱或恶化的主导因子各异，环境的主导表现特征各不相同，所选择的指标也各不相同，用可持续度模型中的环境评价因子所评价出来的结果缺乏地区间的可比性，如加以改进，可使其应用范围更加广阔。本文正是尝试将可持续度模型加以改进，使其适用于评价新疆县市的协调发展。并选取民丰县作为研究区域，应用改进后的可持续度模型对其进行评价验证，所作工作具体如下： 1.确定评价指标：根据新疆特殊的地域环境，确定可持续度评价指标和生态环境评价指标。二者之中，侧重后者的选取，确定为：年均温度，年均降水量，年沙尘暴天数与耕地面积。 2.改进模型：结合新疆县市的实际情况，将模型改进为： S=（（1-q）×（M/M₀）×（G/G₀））/(q×（N/N₀）×e^I/I₀) 其中，G为评价年国内生产总值； G₀为基准年国内生产总值； N为评价年总人口； N₀为基准年总人口； M为评价年水资源总量； M₀为基准年水资源总量； I为评价年生态环境整体水平； I。为基准年生态环境整体水平； q为恩格尔系数。 3．选区域、量化指标：选择民丰县为研究区域，量化选定的评价指标，对 生态环境评价指标进行标准化处理并确定权重。 4．应用模型，得出结果：将各评价指标代入改进后的可持续度模型，得到 综合可持续度变化曲线，对其进行趋势分析。评价期内，民丰县可持续度的变 化趋势整体呈下降趋势1986—1989年期间，可持续度持续上升，主要的原因在 于国民经济的发展N 1989叫 年期间，可持续度大幅振荡波动。可持续度波 动的前期，水资源量的大幅下降是造成可持续度剧烈下滑的主要原因。1997～1999 年期间，可持续度持续上升。 5．对比、分析：十五年以来，综合可持续度呈下降趋势，但变化不大。就整 体来看，单个评价因子所对应的可持续度的变化趋势相差很大。评价期内，基于 耕地面积的可持续度曲线的变化趋势与综合可持续度的变化趋势相近。表明耕 地面积指标最适于用来评价生态环境。 通过分析不同的评价结果证明，改进后的可持续度模型能用于定量的评价生 态环境对于区域协调发展的影响，评价结果和现实基本相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study on regional P-R-E-D system takes the coordinated growth of population, resources, environment and development梩he four subsystems of its?as its objective. Such research begins in seventies last century, only developing thirty years up to now. It begins with qualitative description by index system and now many experts make an attempt on the quantitative evaluation. Generally, during the course of study on regional P-R-E-D system, it will be more scientific and objective to put the quantitative means into use unquestionably, but till now, the qualitative description is still in the dominant position, mainly due to the late starting.Conforming to the trend of quantitative research, many experts in our country try to study the regional P-R-E-D system with quantitative method and have made some progress. Among the limited evaluation models, the one of sustainable degree lays stress on the key characteristic indices, and choos~the most critical one to construct model. It defines six factors to appraise the sustainable degree. That is economic development, development stage, energy consumption, population growth and environment quality. It is comparatively more reasonable and feasible to evaluate industrial cities. Owing to the vast territory ~nd complicated constitution, the key factor making the environment fragile or deteriorated varies greatly in China, which determines that the indices should be different. Therefore, the result evaluated by the environment quality factor is deficiency in applying in different regions. However, it can be used more widely if improved.The dissertation discusses how to improve the sustainable degree model to make it appropriate for being applied in Xinjiang. The author chooses Minfeng county as research region to testify the improved model based on the concrete process.1 .Determining the evaluating indices: Based on the unique regional environment of Xinjiang, the author determines two kinds of evaluating indices: one for sustainable degree, the other for ecological factor. Emphasizing on later and selecting the indices as: annual temperature, annual precipitation, days of annual sandstorm and cultivated area.2.lmproving the model: According to actual circumstance in Xinjiang, the author improves the model to:= (1梣)x(M/M0)x(G/G0)qx (N/No)x el/JoIII-~/Let S be for the sustainable degree,Let q be the Engel coefficient,Let M be the total amount of water resources in evaluating year,Let M0 be the total amount of water resources in preference year,Let G be the gross national product in evaluating year,Let G0 be the gross national product in reference year,Let N be the population in evaluating year,Let N0 be the population in reference year,Let I be the level of ecological environment in evaluating year,Let I,~ be the level of ecological environment in reference year.3.Choosing the research region and assigning the indices: Thinking it over, the author chooses Minfeng county as research region, then assigns the indices, standardizes the ecological environment indices, and determines its weight in the light of experts?suggestion.4.Applying the model and gaining the result: Putting the indices into the model, gaining the fluctuating curve of synthetic sustainable degree and analyzing its trend, which indicates that during the evaluating period, the trend of synthetic sustainable degree declines a little on the whole. From 1986 to 1989, the sustainable degree increase continuously, mainly thanks to the prosperous developing of national economy. From 1989 to 1997, the curve of sustainable degree oscillates greatly. In the prophase, it is the large decrease of water resources that causes the severe dropping of the curve. From1997 to 1999, the sustainable degree rises on the end.5.Contrasting and analyzing: Contrasting among different estimating results for sustainable degree based on variety ecological environment factors to testify the feasibility of the更多还原