江苏农民消费问题研究

【作者】 刘惠英；

【导师】 顾焕章；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济及管理， 2000， 硕士

【摘要】 在买方市场条件下，消费问题已成为经济领域中最重要的方面。本文首先通过比较说明了农民消费生活水平比过去虽然得到提高，但是城乡之间、地区之间存在显著的差异。第二，在对江苏农民消费结构的演变分析基础上，得出1997年江苏农民已进入小康型的消费结构，农民消费具有总量上升，结构演进的特征。为了进一步对消费结构进行分析和预测，利用了1999年农户消费的截面数据，采用扩展线性支出系统模型分析得出农户需求的价格弹性和收入弹性及将来的消费走势。第三，在对江苏农民消费行为的外部环境和内在动机进行分析以后，利用消费函数理论中的生命周期假设模型和持久收入假设模型进行拟合，结果说明了收入尤其是持久收入是影响农民消费的最主要的因素，及消费的不可逆性等。第四，由于70％多的人口分布在农村，农民消费品拥有量低下，农村需求潜力巨大，农村消费增长对经济增长具有强大的推动作用，农民消费水平和结构的变化对经济结构的调整具有导向作用。分析得出过去20年，江苏农民消费增长对经济增长所作的贡献呈现下降的趋势，值得重视。第五，要提高农村消费水平，关键是农民增收，本人针对江苏具体情况提出了增加农民收入的一些具体措施。最后部分可以看作是全文的一个总结，在上述研究的基础上，阐述了一些农村消费不足的深层原因和对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under buyer’s market, consumption problem has been the most important in economic field. This paper, firstly, shows that the life level of peasants in Jiangsu province is higher than that of the past, but there are remarkable differences between urban and region, among the south, middle and the north of province. Secondly, on analysis the variation of the peasant consumption composition in Jiangsu, the conclude is the peasants have generally been comparatively well-off. The author uses cross-section data on income and expenditures of rural household of iiangsu in 1999 for further analysis and prediction it, and obtains price and income elasticity of consumption and consumptive trend in future by extended linear expenditure system. Thirdly, considering the external environment and internal supposal of peasant consumption, the paper draws that income, especially stable income is the most primary factor to consumption by the models of consumption function (Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis and Modigliani’s life cycle hypothesis). The fourth, discussing the relationship between consumption and economic growth, the result is the variation of consumptive level and composition has a guiding rule to adjust economy structure. The fifth, to increase peasant’s consumption depends on increasing of their income. The study comes up with some corresponding measures about increasing peasant income. Finally, the author proposes the reasons of being short of demand in rural region and relevant policies should be taken.更多还原