上市公司盈利预测的披露与监管

【作者】 尹蘅；

【导师】 赵德武；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2000， 硕士

【摘要】 中国的股票市场已历经十载，在世人的瞩目之下，日趋成熟。然而，我们还不能说它是一个有效率的市场，其原因之一便是上市公司的信息披露无法满足广大投资者的需要及市场的三公原则。上市公司需要披露的信息涉及方方面面，将上市公司信息披露作为单个的问题进行研究，虽可以提出一些原则性的建议，但各项具体信息有自身特性，在披露时将会面临不同问题，原则性建议只能起指导作用，因此有必要针对一些重要的具体信息项目的披露进行研究。本文定位于上市公司披露的一项重要信息——盈利预测，是因为盈利预测作为上市公司发行上市时最初公布的信息，提供公司未来时期收益情况的预计与测算，为投资者的最初投资决策提供重要依据，从而对投资者的预期、股价的稳定、股市的有效性等都有重大影响。然而，由于市场的不完善、投机气氖浓厚等原因，大多数投资者并未给予它足够的重视，盈利预测的重要性远远被忽视了。因此，本文从探讨盈利预测的重要性入手，讨论了盈利预测编制的特点及编制中出现的问题与责任，揭示了我国盈利预测披露现状并将其与国外盈利预测披露状况做出比较，分析得出我国上市公司盈利预测可靠性不高的原因，再结合对上市公司真实数据所做的检验及得出的结论，总结了对盈利预测进行监管，提高其可靠性的若干具有针对性的建议，以期能对提高盈利预测质量有所贡献。本文共分四章第一章 证券市场与盈利预测信息披露这一章首先分析了有效市场假说与盈利预测披露的关系，在介绍有效市场假说之后，提出由于盈利预测披露可减少信息不对称，降低信息成本和交易成本，从而有助于提高证券市场的有效性。同时，本章分析得出，由于证券市场参与各方对盈利预测披露都有强烈需求，也导致了它的有效供给。上市公司可将盈利预测作为信号，对外传递公司良好形象，进行反购并和提供对经营者的激励；投资者可通过盈<WP=3>利预测评价、考核、监督公司，来均衡双方力量；证券监管机构可通过要求披露来保持市场的公平，制衡各方之间的利益。第二章 上市公司盈利预测的编制这一章从分析上市公司盈利预测编制结果不令人满意的原因入手，指出以下原因可能导致盈利预测编制的结果不令人满意：（1）预测自身的特性；（2）客观影响因素；（3）主观影响因素；（4）上市公司编制人员的能力。随后，作者提出了确保盈利预测编制可靠性的途径，如建立健全预算制度、合理确立预测基准等。最后，作者进一步合理划分了盈利预测的编制责任，指出管理当局应对盈利预测编制负责，但这一责任也并非无限大，只要管理当局在编制时“无过错”，即使盈利预测与最终结果存在差异，管理当局也不应承担责任。第三章 上市公司盈利预测的披露本章是全文的重点，分为四个小节，其中第四小节是所做的数据检验，以期以理论联系实际，得出直接源于实践的结论。本章第一节对我国上市公司盈利预测披露现状进行了介绍，将散布于《公开发行股票公司信息披露的内容与格式准则》等有关法律、法规中对盈利预测的规范概括起来，对披露方式、载体、预测期间、预测表达方式等作了详细介绍，使我们得以了解我国盈利预测披露现状的概貌。第二节进行了中外盈利预测披露政策的比较，比较从二个方面进行：（1）披露方式的选择；（2）披露的格式与内容。通过比较我们了解了国外的先进经验并认识到应根据各国具体情况进行规范。作者指出在我国证券市场不成熟的的情况下，应采用强制性的披露政策，通过拓宽盈利预测披露渠道、改变盈利预测披露方式等措施，以高质量的供给刺激更强烈的需求，再以需求来促进更高质量的供给，逐步提高市场的有效性。第三节中针对我国盈利预测可靠性不高的事实，对上市公司操纵盈利预测披露的原因做了分析，指出上市公司可能因以下原因进行操纵：（1）披露的外部性。外部性体现在成本分摊不公平与比较不利益两方面。上市公司披露的盈利预测作为一种公共产品，必然存在着披露公司和现在的投资者支付成本生产，而其他非披露公司和潜在<WP=4>的投资者却免费享受的情况。同时，过分精确地披露盈利预测也可能泄露公司的经营秘密，而对公司造成竞争上的劣势。（2）上市公司的“圈钱”与“内部人控制”。我国股市建立的最初目的是为国企改制服务，而许多劣质公司却利用这一机会大规模筹集低成本资金，再加上许多上市公司内部人控制现象严重，公司筹集的资金多被内部人用于对自身有利的用途，加强了它们操纵盈利预测的动机。同时我国证券监管力度不够也给上市公司的操纵行为造成可乘之机。第四节是对上市公司所披露的盈利预测的可靠性所做的数据分析，文中以预测误差计量盈利预测的可靠性，分别以平均预测误差（ME）、平均绝对预测误差（MAE）、平均绝对百分预测误差（MAPE）等为指标，随机选择1996～1998年发行上市并披露盈利预测，分属冶金、化工、家电及电子信息、公用这四个产业的公司为样本，对披露的盈利预测的可靠性作了预测误差指标分组计算与统计检验，并对总体情况进行了推论。检验最后结论认为：我国上市公司披露的盈利预测可靠性不高，公司所处的产业与公司规模对盈利预测可靠性的高低具有影响。发展前景良好?更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1990,China’s stock market has made significant progress. But without accurate and timely information disclosure, it is not an efficient market. The information which listed company should disclose deals with a wide range, each specific information has its own feature. So though researches which treat information disclosure as a single problem can offer some principal suggestion. We need research in specific information disclosure. This dissertation is about earnings forecast which is one important part of information which should be disclosed by listed company. As the estimation of future operating outcome, earnings forecast provide basis for investors’ decision making, and has great effect on investors’ expectation, stability of stock market’s efficiency. How to improve its quality is the problem the author want to research in. Directed by this goal, the paper discusses the disclosure of earnings forecast and the supervision over it, and puts forward some useful suggestion.The dissertation is composed of four chapters.Chapter 1 introduces the importance of earnings forecast disclosure. After analyzing the relation between efficient-market hypothesis and earning forecast disclosure, the author holds that because the disclosure can reduce the asymmetry of information, lower information costs and exchange costs, it can raise the market’s efficiency. And the investor, the listed company and the regulatory organization all have a strong thirst for disclosed earnings forecast and the need leads to supply. The investor can employ it to evaluate and supervise the company, the listed company can use it as a signal to express its confidence. The regulatory organization can apply it to keep the market to be fair.<WP=8>Chapter 2 inquires into the compilation of earnings forecast. The author firstly analyses the reasons that result in unpleased outcome of compilation. The reasons include: (1) the attribute of forecast; (2) the objective factors ; (3) the subjective factors ;(4) the compiler’s ability. Then the author makes some suggestion of how to assure the reliability of earnings forecast. The author thinks that the listed company should adopt steps such as setting up perfect budget system and select forecast basis correctly. Lastly, the author distinguishes the responsibility of compilation between compiler and auditor. The author holds: the compiler should be responsible for the compilation. Chapter 3 expounds the disclosure earnings forecast. This chapter makes up of four parts. Part 1 introduces the present situation of earnings forecast’s disclosure in China. Summarizing the rules and regulations which should be abided by when disclosing, the author makes clear the policy, form and period of disclosure and so on. Part 2 makes a comparison of disclosure between China and western countries. The comparison is made in two fields:(1) the choice of disclosure policy;(2) the form ad content of disclosure. Through comparison, we can learn advanced experience and realized that the regulatory organization should formulate regulations that fit for rationed conditions. The author points out that because the stock market in China isn’t an efficient market, so we should apply compulsory disclosure policy. Part 3 analyses the reasons why listed company would manipulate earnings forecast. There would be two reasons: (1) the externalities of disclosure; (2) the listed company’s goal of raising money and the imperfect control structure in it. That there isn’t enough strength to supervise is also a factor that leads to manipulation. Part 4 gives data analysis of the reliability of disclosed earnings forecast. The author selects listed company that initially <WP=9>public offer from 1996 to 1998 as samples, uses forecast error (mean error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error) as index, measures the reliability of samples by forecast error, and draws inference about total companies. Through data analyzing, the author expect the conclusion drawn from practice can be more convincing.Chapter 4 discusses the su更多还原