【摘要】 目的 分析2010—2021年上海市杨浦区4类慢性病早死概率对期望寿命的影响，为制定慢性病防控策略提供依据。方法 通过上海市疾病预防控制信息管理平台死亡信息登记管理系统收集2010—2021年杨浦区户籍居民死亡资料，采用简略寿命表法计算恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病的早死概率和期望寿命；采用平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分析4类慢性病早死概率变化趋势；采用Arriaga分解法分析4类慢性病早死概率对期望寿命的影响。结果 杨浦区4类慢性病早死概率从2010年的9.88%下降至2021年的9.22%，总体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-0.540%,P<0.05）；女性早死概率从6.71%下降至4.90%，呈下降趋势（AAPC=-2.715%,P<0.05）；男性趋势无统计学意义（P>0.05）。居民期望寿命从2010年的82.52岁增加至2021年的84.50岁，总体呈上升趋势（AAPC=0.244%,P<0.05），其中男性和女性分别增加1.71和2.34岁（AAPC=0.197%和0.303%，均P<0.05）。恶性肿瘤（AAPC=-0.967%,P<0.05）和慢性呼吸系统疾病（AAPC=-3.071%,P<0.05）早死概率下降分别使期望寿命增加0.30和0.03岁，贡献率分别为12.18%和1.29%。糖尿病和心脑血管疾病的早死概率变化趋势无统计学意义（均P>0.05），分别使期望寿命降低0.05和0.10岁，贡献率分别为-2.40%和-5.05%；其中男性心脑血管疾病早死概率上升（AAPC=1.673%）使男性期望寿命降低0.22岁，女性心脑血管疾病早死概率下降（AAPC=-3.824%）使女性期望寿命增加0.03岁，贡献率分别为-13.03%和1.14%。结论 2010—2021年杨浦区4类慢性病早死概率总体呈下降趋势，期望寿命增加，需重点关注糖尿病和男性心脑血管疾病早死概率对期望寿命的负向影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the impact of premature death due to four major chronic diseases on life expectancy in Yangpu District, Shanghai Municipality from 2010 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating chronic disease prevention and control strategies.Methods Mortality data of registered residents in Yangpu District from 2010 to2021 were collected through the Death Information Registration and Management System of the Shanghai Municipal Disease Control and Prevention Information Management Platform. The premature death probability of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases, and life expectancy of residents were calculated using the abridged life table method. Trends in premature death probability for four types of chronic diseases were analyzed using the average annual percent change(AAPC). The impact of premature death probability due to four chronic diseases on life expectancy was assessed by Arriaga’s decomposition method.ResultsThe premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases in Yangpu District decreased from 9.88% in 2010 to 9.22% in 2021,showing an overall declining trend(AAPC=-0.540%, P<0.05). Among females, the premature death probability declined from 6.71% to 4.90%(AAPC=-2.715%, P<0.05), whereas no statistically significant trend was observed in males(P>0.05). Life expectancy increased from 82.52 years in 2010 to 84.50 years in 2021, with an overall upward trend(AAPC=0.244%, P<0.05). Life expectancy rose by 1.71 years for males and 2.34 years for females(AAPC=0.197% and 0.303%,both P<0.05). Declines in premature death probability from malignant tumors(AAPC=-0.967%, P<0.05) and chronic respiratory diseases(AAPC=-3.071%, P<0.05) contributed to gains in life expectancy of 0.30 years and 0.03 years, with contribution rates of 12.18% and 1.29%, respectively. Changes in premature death probability due to diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were not statistically significant(both P>0.05), resulting in reductions in life expectancy of 0.05 years and 0.10 years, with contribution rates of-2.40% and-5.05%, respectively. Notably, an increase in premature death probability due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males(AAPC=1.673%)contributed to a decrease of 0.22 years in male life expectancy, whereas a decrease among females(AAPC=-3.824%)contributed to an increase of 0.03 years in female life expectancy, with contribution rates of-13.03% and1.14%, respectively.Conclusions From 2010 to 2021, Yangpu District experienced an overall decline in premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases and an increase in life expectancy. Greater attention should be paid to the negative impacts of premature death probability from diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males on life expectancy.更多还原