【摘要】 目的 构建并验证围产期孕妇焦虑发生风险的列线图预测模型，为早期识别高风险人群提供参考。方法 纳入镇江市第一人民医院于2021年6月至2024年6月收治的317名围生期女性，分别纳入训练集(n=222)、验证集(n=95)。使用焦虑自评量表(SAS)评估受试者入组时的焦虑状态，按照训练集受试者焦虑发生情况，将其分别纳入发生组、未发生组，使用Logistic多因素回归模型分析焦虑的影响因素。基于影响因素，构建列线图模型并评估模型一致性、区分度，将模型代入验证集分析其应用效能。结果 围产期女性焦虑发生率为10.81%。多因素分析显示，年龄≥30岁、夫妻感情一般或不和睦、家庭人均月收入低、初产、产前贫血、子痫前期、心理弹性差、产程不顺均为焦虑的独立危险因素(P均<0.05)。列线图模型训练集曲线下面积(AUC)为0.975,验证集AUC为0.875,校准曲线与Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示模型拟合良好。结论 本研究构建的围产期焦虑风险列线图模型预测性能良好，具备良好的区分度与临床实用性，适合用于围产期焦虑高风险人群的早期识别。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To construct and validate a nomogram prediction model for the risk of anxiety in perinatal women and to provide reference for the early identification of high-risk populations. Methods A total of 317 pregnant women admitted to Zhenjiang First People’s Hospital from June 2021 to June 2024 were included.They were divided into a training set(n=222) and a validation set(n=95). The Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SDS) was used to assess the anxiety status of the subjects at enrollment. According to the occurrence of anxiety among the participants in the training set, they were divided into an occurrence group and a non-occurrence group. A multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of anxiety. Based on these factors, a nomogram model was constructed, and its consistency and discrimination were evaluated.The model was then applied to the validation set to assess its application efficacy. Results The incidence of anxiety among perinatal women was 10.81%. Multivariate analysis revealed that age ≥ 30 years, an average or poor marital relationship, low monthly family income per capita, primiparity, prenatal anemia, preeclampsia, poor psychological resilience, and an unsmooth labor process were all independent risk factors for anxiety(P < 0.05). The area under the curve(AUC) of the nomogram model in the training set was 0.975, and that in the validation set was 0.875. The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that the model fit well. Conclusion The nomogram model for predicting anxiety risk in perinatal women constructed in this study has good predictive performance, good discrimination and clinical practicability, and is suitable for the early identification of high-risk populations of perinatal anxiety.更多还原