【摘要】 充足的应急物资储备是有效应对各类突发事件的重要保障。目前，我国应急物资实物、生产能力和资金3种储备策略配比失衡，造成了物资浪费且难以满足重大突发事件的救灾需求，但现有文献针对应急物资混合储备策略的研究都基于确切的需求概率分布，限制了模型的实际应用性。为此，本文在需求分布不确定下，首先以最小化极值分布下的政府期望成本为目标建立应急物资实物、生产能力和资金混合储备优化模型，给出了4种不同最优鲁棒储备策略及其边界条件。此外，构建了最小最大后悔度准则下的应急物资储备优化模型，给出了最小最大期望后悔度准则下最优鲁棒储备策略的高效求解形式。关键性管理启示包括：(1)随着对分布不确定厌恶程度的增大，最优生产能力储备水平和资金储备水平保持不变，而最优实物储备水平提高；(2)最优实物储备水平和生产能力储备水平不受物资短缺惩罚成本的影响，而最优资金储备水平随物资短缺惩罚成本的增大而提高；(3)最优生产能力储备水平和资金储备水平随参考分布不确定性的增大而提高，但最优实物储备水平可能随着参考分布不确定性增大而降低。研究成果可以为政府部门更好地做好应急物资储备管理提供决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Adequate reserves of emergency supplies are essential for effectively responding to various emergency events. Currently, the imbalance in the allocation of physical, production capacity, and capital reserve strategies for emergency supplies in China has led to massive resource waste and difficulty in meeting the relief demands of major emergency events. However, the existing literature on mixed reserve strategies is based on exact probability distributions of demand, limiting the practical application of the models. Therefore, this paper develops a mixed reserve model for physical, production capacity, and capital under demand distribution uncertainty, aiming to minimize the government’s expected cost under extreme distributions. We derive four optimal robust reserve strategies and their boundary conditions. In addition, we establish an emergency supplies reserve model using the minimax regret criterion and derive the equivalent tractable reformulation. The key insights include: 1) As ambiguity aversion increases, the optimal production capacity and capital reserve levels remain unchanged, while the optimal physical reserve level increases. 2) The optimal physical and production capacity reserve levels are constant in the shortage-penalty cost, while the optimal capital reserve level increases with the shortage-penalty cost.3) The optimal production capacity and capital reserve levels increase with the uncertainty of the reference distribution, while the optimal physical reserve level may decrease. The research findings enhance the flexibility and robustness of emergency supply reserve strategies and provide several managerial implications for the government.更多还原