【摘要】 研究目的：探究耕地非粮化对粮食安全的影响效应与机制，为实现耕地非粮化的精准管控提供决策参考。研究方法：基于2006—2023年省级面板数据，采用Shapley值法对耕地非粮化进行总体测度与来源分解，运用熵权法对粮食安全进行量化评估，进而通过有效转移熵方法测度耕地非粮化对粮食安全的影响，并借助社会网络分析和二次指派程序揭示该影响的网络格局及其驱动机制。研究结果：(1)我国耕地非粮化呈现扩散、集聚与分异交织并存的时空演变特征，而粮食安全在总体安全下蕴含着不容忽视的区域性风险集聚。(2)耕地非粮化能够通过信息传递对粮食安全产生显著的有向、非对称和非线性影响，且这一影响主要通过跨域省份间的信息传递实现。相较于存量耕地非粮化，新增耕地投入利用后引致的耕地非粮化对粮食安全的影响更为突出。(3)耕地非粮化对粮食安全的影响已形成高度连通的信息流关联网络，关键传导路径与既有的粮食流通格局呈现较高重叠性，且以远距离空间传导为显著特征。总体和存量耕地非粮化影响粮食安全的网络是由“政府—市场”衔接偏离所驱动的，而增量耕地非粮化影响粮食安全的网络更易因政府管控的失效而被强化。研究结论：实现耕地非粮化的精准管控，须以空间联动为纽带建立耕地非粮化协同治理机制，并通过推动“有为政府”与“有效市场”的有机结合，统筹平衡粮食生产的个体利益与集体目标，从严落实对新增耕地的种植用途管控。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to explore the mechanisms and effects through which non-grain production of cultivated land affects food security,thereby providing decision-making references for achieving targeted and precise regulation of non-grain production of cultivated land.The research methods are as follows.Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2023,this study employs the Shapley value method to comprehensively measure and decompose the sources of non-grain production of cultivated land,utilizes the entropy weight method to quantitatively assess food security,and then applies the effective transfer entropy method to measure the impact of non-grain production of cultivated land on food security.Furthermore,social network analysis and quadratic assignment procedure are used to reveal the network pattern of this impact and its driving mechanisms.The research results showed that:1) non-grain production of cultivated land exhibits a complex spatiotemporal evolutionary characterized by the coexistence and interplay of spatial diffusion,agglomeration,and differentiation,while food security—despite an overall secure trajectory—still harbors non-negligible regional clusters of risk.2) Non-grain production of cultivated land exerts significant directed,asymmetric,and nonlinear effects on food security through information transmission,and these effects are realized primarily via information transmission across non-adjacent provinces.Compared with non-grain production arising from the extant cultivated land,the non-grain production induced by newly-added cultivated land has a more pronounced impact on food security.3) The impacts of non-grain production of cultivated land on food security have formed a highly connected information-flow association network,in which the key transmission pathways largely overlap with the existing grain circulation pattern and are marked by pronounced long-distance spatial transmission.The networks linking overall and stock non-grain production to food security are driven by the misalignment between government regulation and market signals,whereas the network associated with incremental non-grain production is more readily intensified by failures in government regulation.In conclusion,to achieve precise control over the non-grain production of cultivated land,it is necessary to establish a collaborative governance mechanism for non-grain production of cultivated land through spatial linkage,and to promote the organic combination of “active government” and “effective market”,balance the individual interests and collective goals of grain production,and strictly implement the control of planting use of newly-added cultivated land.更多还原