【摘要】 本研究将贝叶斯方法融入剩余产量模型,利用渔获量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据对太湖陈氏新银鱼（Neosalanx tangkahkeii）进行不确定性分析,同时预测退捕期间陈氏新银鱼的资源恢复情况,并寻求获得捕捞恢复时期的最佳捕捞策略。结果表明,陈氏新银鱼的内禀增长率（r）均值为0.44（CV=0.28）,环境容纳量（K）为11367 t（CV=0.26）,可捕捞系数（q）为8.80×10^-6（CV=0.29）,所有参数Gelman-Rubin收敛统计量（R-hat统计量）均小于1.05,表明模型收敛良好。退捕期间,陈氏新银鱼生物量在第4年接近环境容纳量。在决策分析阶段,发现当捕捞死亡系数维持在0.2左右时为最佳,该策略下的预期产量仍可达最大可持续产量（MSY）的85%～90%,同时能将种群风险显著降低（SustainableProb=71.3%）,以兼顾产量目标与太湖陈氏新银鱼资源的长期可持续性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taihu Lake, the third largest freshwater lake in China, has long supported a commercially important Chinese icefish（Neosalanx tangkahkeii） fishery. However, the recovery status of Chinese icefish resources following the fishing ban, as well as future strategies for their sustainable utilization, remains scientifically unassessed. This study integrated Bayesian methods into a surplus production model to conduct uncertainty analyses of Chinese icefish stocks in Taihu Lake using catch and catch-per-unit-effort（CPUE） data. This study projected resource recovery during the fishing ban period and identified optimal harvest strategies for the subsequent stock recovery phase. The results demonstrated the following mean parameter estimates: intrinsic growth rate（r）=0.44（CV=0.28）, carrying capacity（K）=11367 t（CV=0.26）, and catchability coefficient（q）=8.80×10^-6（CV=0.29）. All parameters exhibited Gelman-Rubin convergence statistics（R-hat values） below 1.05, indicating excellent model convergence. During the fishing ban period, Chinese icefish biomass approached carrying capacity within four years. Decision analysis indicated that a fishing mortality rate of 0.2 represents the optimal management strategy, achieving approximately 85%–90% of the maximum sustainable yield（MSY） while substantially reducing population risk（SustainableProb=71.3%）, thereby balancing yield objectives with long-term sustainability of Chinese icefish resources in Taihu Lake.更多还原