【摘要】 【目的】厘清自然灾害经历对农户农地转出决策的抑制效应，有助于深化对自然灾害微观经济效应的理论认知，进而为合理引导农地流转、稳步推进农业适度规模经营提供实证依据与政策参考。【方法】基于2022年黄河流域中上游农户调研数据，采用Probit模型、费舍尔组合检验与中介效应模型，实证分析自然灾害经历对农户农地转出决策的影响、异质性特征及作用机制。【结果】(1)自然灾害经历对农户农地转出决策具有显著抑制效应。这一效应通过强化农户的土地保障依赖与风险规避动机，削弱了农地流转的市场可行性，进而制约了农地资源的集中连片配置，对农业适度规模经营的推进形成了现实阻碍。(2)该抑制效应存在显著异质性，在无社会身份、社会网络较强、以非农生计为主及所在村庄设有村规民约的农户群体中作用更强。(3)机制检验表明，提升农户风险厌恶程度、增强农业技术培训参与意愿、推动农业保险购买是自然灾害经历抑制农户农地转出决策的重要机制。【结论】在强化自然灾害风险管理、促进农地有序流转过程中，应充分重视自然灾害经历的影响并兼顾农户群体差异，通过引导农户理性认知风险、优化农业技术培训服务、健全农业保险体系等途径缓解其抑制作用，为实现农业适度规模经营提供实践支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] Clarifying the inhibitory effects of natural disaster experience on farmers’ decision of farmland transfer-out can help deepen the theoretical understanding of the microeconomic effects of natural disasters, thereby providing an empirical basis and policy reference for reasonably guiding farmland transfer and steadily promoting moderate-scale agricultural operation. [Methods] Based on survey data of farmers in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, this study employed the Probit model, Fisher combination test, and mediation effect model to empirically analyze the impact, heterogeneity, and mechanism of natural disaster experience on farmers’ farmland transfer-out decision. [Results](1) Natural disaster experience had a significant inhibitory effect on farmers’ farmland transfer-out decision. This effect weakened the market feasibility of farmland transfer by strengthening farmers’ land security dependence and risk aversion motivation, which in turn restricted the centralized and contiguous allocation of farmland resources and formed a practical obstacle to the promotion of moderate-scale agricultural operation.(2) The inhibitory effect exhibited significant heterogeneity. Specifically, the effect was more pronounced among farmers without social identity, with strong social networks, relying mainly on non-agricultural livelihoods, and living in villages with established village regulations and conventions.(3) The mechanism test showed that natural disaster experience inhibited farmers’ farmland transfer-out decision by improving farmers’ risk aversion, enhancing their willingness to participate in agricultural technology training, and promoting agricultural insurance purchase. [Conclusion] During the process of strengthening natural disaster risk management and promoting the orderly transfer of farmland, the impact of natural disaster experience and the differences of farmers’ groups should be fully considered. By guiding farmers to rationally recognize risks, optimizing agricultural technology training services, and improving the agricultural insurance system, the inhibitory effects can be alleviated, and practical support can be provided for the realization of moderate-scale agricultural operation.更多还原