【摘要】 目的 探讨1992—2021年中国妇科肿瘤的发病和死亡趋势，分析其与年龄-时期-队列因素的关联，并预测2022—2045年妇科肿瘤的流行趋势。方法 数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。通过年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和队列的独立效应，并使用Nordpred预测模型预测2022年至2045年标化发病率和标化死亡率的趋势。结果 1992—2021年，宫颈癌标化发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.51%,95%CI:0.32%～0.72%);卵巢癌标化发病率总体下降不显著，但近期(2014—2021年)出现上升(APC=1.58%,95%CI:0.92%～2.24%);子宫体癌标化发病率增长最快(AAPC=0.72%,95%CI:0.43%～0.96%)。3种癌症的标化死亡率均呈下降趋势，其中子宫体癌降幅最大(AAPC=-2.21%,95%CI:-2.53%～-1.93%)。年龄-时期-队列分析显示，宫颈癌发病风险随时期推移增加(2017—2021年相对基线RR=1.18),但死亡风险下降(RR=0.75)。预测结果显示，宫颈癌、卵巢癌和子宫体癌的标化发病率将分别从2022年的19.38/10万、5.74/10万、10.08/10万升至2045年的21.26/10万、7.02/10万、11.30/10万。结论 尽管死亡率下降，但人口老龄化和危险因素变化导致妇科肿瘤发病率上升，并将加剧中国的疾病负担。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the incidence and mortality trends in gynecological tumors in China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age-period-cohort factors, and predict the trends of gynecological tumors from 2022 to 2045. Methods Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database 2021. The Joinpoint Regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change(AAPC). An age-period-cohort analysis was employed to measure the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred prediction model was used to project the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR) trends from 2022 to 2045. Results From 1992 to 2021, cervical cancer exhibited rising ASIR(AAPC=0.51%, 95% CI: 0.32%-0.72%), while ovarian cancer showed non-significant overall ASIR decline but a recent uptick(2014-2021 APC=1.58%,95 CI:0.92%-2.24%). Uterine corpus cancer had the fastest ASIR growth(AAPC=0.72%, 95% CI:0.43%-0.96%). All three cancers demonstrated declining ASMR, led by uterine corpus cancer(AAPC=-2.21%,95 CI:-2.53% to-1.93%). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing cervical cancer incidence risk with period(RR=1.18 in 2017-2021 vs. baseline) but declining mortality risk(RR=0.75). The prediction from 2022 to 2045 indicated rising ASIR for cervical(19.38 to 21.26/100 000), ovarian(5.74 to 7.02/100 000), and uterine corpus cancers(10.08 to 11.30/100 000). Conclusions Despite declining mortality rates, the growing incidence of gynecological tumors, driven by aging populations and evolving risk factors, will escalate China’s disease burden.更多还原