【摘要】 目的 探讨盐城市2012—2021年肺癌发病情况，并预测未来十年的变化趋势，为制定有效可行的肺癌防控策略提供理论依据。方法 肺癌发病数据来源于盐城市肿瘤登记处。利用Joinpoint软件分析盐城市2012—2021年分年龄、分性别肺癌发病变化趋势，使用Rstudio软件建立年龄-时期-队列模型，分析年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应对肺癌发病的影响，并预测未来十年肺癌发病的趋势变化。结果2012—2021年盐城市肺癌发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.39%,P<0.05),男性高于女性，男性肺癌发病率相对稳定，女性肺癌发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.06%,P<0.05);年龄-时期-队列模型显示，从45岁开始盐城市肺癌发病率呈快速上升趋势，70～79岁组的人群随着时间推移发病率呈上升趋势，出生年代越早的人群，肺癌发病率呈上升趋势。2022—2031年盐城市肺癌的发病率呈小幅度下降趋势，其中男性肺癌发病率呈小幅度下降趋势，女性肺癌的发病率保持稳定。结论 2012—2021年盐城市肺癌发病率呈上升趋势，未来十年呈小幅度下降趋势，提示盐城市应加大对肺癌高危人群的防控工作，进一步探究年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应对肺癌发病率的影响，注重女性人群的干预工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To investigate the incidence of lung cancer in Yancheng City from 2012 to 2021 and predict its changing trends over the next decade, providing a theoretical basis for formulating effective and feasible lung cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods The lung cancer incidence data in this study was obtained from the Yancheng City Cancer Registry. Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trends in lung cancer incidence by age and sex from 2012 to 2021. An age-period-cohort(APC) model was established using Rstudio to examine the effects of age, period, and cohort on lung cancer incidence and to predict future trends over the next decade. Results From 2012 to 2021, the incidence of lung cancer in Yancheng City showed an upward trend(AAPC=2.39%, P<0.05), with higher rates in males than in females. The incidence in males remained relatively stable, while that in females exhibited an increasing trend(AAPC=3.06%, P<0.05). The APC model revealed that lung cancer incidence increased rapidly starting from age 45, with the 70-79 age group showing a rising trend over time. Earlier birth cohorts had higher lung cancer incidence rates. The predicted trends for 2022 to 2031 indicate a slight decline in lung cancer incidence in Yancheng City, with male incidence decreasing slightly and female incidence remaining stable.Conclusions From 2012 to 2021, lung cancer incidence in Yancheng City showed an upward trend, but it is projected to decline slightly over the next decade. These findings suggest that Yancheng City should strengthen prevention and control measures for high-risk populations, further investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on lung cancer incidence, and emphasize interventions for female populations.更多还原