【摘要】 冰雹灾害严重威胁云南烤烟生产安全，开展精细化风险区划对防灾减灾至关重要。该文基于2015—2024年冰雹记录、DEM及乡镇烤烟种植灾情数据，综合冰雹活动分布特征、地形和冰雹频数的非线性拟合，选取烟区冰雹危险性、敏感性、易损性和防御能力因子，采用AHP、GIS和区间法开展云南烟区冰雹风险区划研究。结果表明：受地形和天气形势共同影响，冰雹活动高值区对应烤烟主产区，中东部地区冰雹频发、种植面积最大，地形敏感性最高，虽以短时小冰雹为主，但易损性较高且防御弱，为烤烟及防雹作业冰雹最高风险区；而种植面积小的西北、西南地区为烤烟冰雹和作业点双低风险区。该研究模型符合烟区生产实际，结论可为烤烟种植产业结构调整及人工防雹作业提供优化决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using hail data from 2015—2024,30-second resolution digital elevation data,fixed operational site information,based on the analysis of the distribution characteristics of hail activity and nonlinear fitting of topography and hail frequency,hail risk zoning in Yunnan’s tobacco-growing regions are analyzed by selecting hazard factors,sensitivity factors,vulnerability factors,and defense capability factors and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Geographic Information Systems(GIS),and the natural breaks classification method. The results show that,under the combined influence of terrain and synoptic weather patterns,areas with high hail activity in Yunnan Province correspond to the main flue-cured tobacco producing regions. The central and eastern parts of Yunnan experience the most frequent hail events and have the largest flue-cured tobacco planting areas at the same time,along with the highest terrain sensitivity factors. Although hail events in these regions are mainly short-duration and small-sized hail,they exhibit high vulnerability and relatively weak defense capacity. Consequently,these areas represent the regions with the highest hail risk for flue-cured tobacco across the province,as well as the areas with the highest risk for artificial hail suppression operations. In contrast,the northwestern and southwestern regions,where the planting area of flue-cured tobacco is relatively small,are classified as low-risk areas for both flue-cured tobacco hail damage and hail suppression operation sites. In terms of factor selection,the actual conditions of flue-cured tobacco production in Yunnan Province is better reflected in this study. The hail disaster risk zoning for tobacco-growing regions interpolated to the township level emphasizes the risk characteristics of flue-cured tobacco cultivation in different townships,while the zoning interpolated to operation sites highlights the risk characteristics of artificial hail suppression operations. The findings can provide a scientific basis for adjusting the industrial structure of flue-cured tobacco cultivation and optimizing the spatial layout of artificial hail suppression operation sites in Yunnan Province.更多还原