【摘要】 生活垃圾焚烧规模快速扩张可能带来潜在健康影响。为量化中国生活垃圾焚烧排放的典型有害污染物导致的呼吸暴露健康风险及其时空分布特征，本研究基于2020—2024年工厂级活动水平数据与综合排放因子，编制全国（不含港澳台地区）污染物排放清单，耦合高斯烟羽模型与健康风险评价方法，测算呼吸暴露途径下的致癌风险与非致癌风险。结果表明，研究期内污染物排放量总体随垃圾焚烧处置量增长而上升。全国尺度健康风险随年份呈现一定波动，但总体处于可接受水平，其中致癌风险介于7.25×10^-7至8.59×10^-7之间，非致癌风险介于2.08×10^-3至2.40×10^-3之间。省际风险差异显著，整体呈现“东部沿海发达地区与超大城市群较高、西北部分地区较低”的空间梯度特征，且受气象条件与人口集聚特征影响，存在排放高值区与风险高值区不完全一致的空间“错位”现象。基于上述结果，建议在持续推进行业减排的基础上，强化风险导向的分级分区管理，重点防控人口集聚地区的暴露风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid expansion of municipal solid waste incineration（MSWI） in China may pose potential health impacts. To quantify the inhalation-related health risks caused by typical hazardous pollutants emitted from MSWI and their spatiotemporal patterns, this study compiled a national（excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions of China） pollutant emission inventory based on plant-level activity data and integrated emission factors from 2020 to 2024. By coupling the Gaussian plume model with health risk assessment methods, the inhalation-based carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks were estimated. The results indicate that pollutant emissions generally increased with rising incineration volumes during the study period. National-level health risks exhibited annual fluctuations but remained within acceptable levels, with carcinogenic risks ranging from 7.25×10^-7 to 8.59×10^-7, and non-carcinogenic risk a ranging from 2.08×10^-3 to 2.40×10^-3. Significant interprovincial variations in risks were observed, exhibiting an overall spatial gradient characterized by higher risks in developed eastern coastal regions and megacity clusters, and lower risks in some northwestern areas. Furthermore, due to combined influence of meteorological conditions and population aggregation, a spatial “mismatch” was identified, where high-emission areas did not entirely coincide with high-risk areas. Based on these findings, it is recommended that, in addition to sustained emission reduction efforts, riskoriented and regionally differentiated management strategies should be strengthened, with particular attention to exposure risks in densely populated areas.更多还原