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基于德尔菲法构建我国全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统评价指标体系
Development of an evaluation index system for the national sentinel surveillance system of acute respiratory infectious diseases in China using the Delphi method
【摘要】 目的 构建我国全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统评价指标体系,为科学评估全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统运行情况提供参考工具。方法 通过查阅发表年限在2000—2025年的相关文献,初步建立全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统评价指标体系。选择21位相关领域专家,采用德尔菲法对每项指标的重要性、熟悉程度及判断依据进行打分,并计算专家积极系数、权威系数、意见协调系数,筛选指标后计算各指标权重。结果 21位专家完成2轮咨询,最终构建包含2个一级指标、14个二级指标和49个三级指标的全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统评价指标体系,反映监测系统功能评估和监测系统运行保障。两轮专家积极系数均为100%。两轮专家意见全部指标的协调程度分别为0.200和0.242,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.01)。指标体系重要性评分的Cronbach’s α系数为0.959。在一级指标中,权重最高的是监测系统功能评估(0.667);在二级指标中,监测系统功能评估中权重最高的指标是及时性(0.165),在监测系统运行保障中权重最高的是制度与机制(0.104)和信息化支持(0.104);在三级指标中,监测系统功能评估中,权重排序前3位的分别为操作复杂度(0.076)、报告数据的准确率(0.057)、信息上报及时率(0.056);在监测系统运行保障中,权重排序前3位的是功能完整度(0.065)、技术方案(0.046)、专职人员情况(0.032)。结论 本研究建立的全国系统评价指标体系具有良好的信度和效度,可以为全国急性呼吸道传染病哨点监测系统运行情况评价提供参考。
【Abstract】 Objective To construct an evaluation index system for the national sentinel surveillance system of acute respiratory infectious diseases in China,so as to provide a reference tool for the scientific assessment of its operational status.Methods A preliminary evaluation index system was developed through a literature review searching papers published between 2000 and 2025.Twenty-one experts in relevant fields were recruited to score each index based on its importance,familiarity,and judgment criteria using the Delphi method.Expert engagement,authority,and consensus coefficients were calculated,and the weights of the indices were determined after filtering.Results The 21 experts completed two rounds of consultation,resulting in an evaluation index system comprising 2 primary indicators,14 secondary indicators,and 49 tertiary indicators,reflecting both the functional evaluation of the surveillance system and the operational support for the system.Both rounds achieved100% response rates.Kendall’s W for consensus among the indicators was 0.200 in round 1 and 0.242 in round2(P<0.01).Cronbach’s a for importance scores was 0.959.Among the primary indicators,the highest weight was assigned to surveillance system function assessment(0.667).Among the secondary indicators,the highest weight within surveillance system function assessment was timeliness(0.165),while within operational support,the highest weights were assigned to systems and mechanisms(0.104) and information technology support(0.104).Among tertiary indicators,the top three indicators with the highest weights within the functionassessment domain were operational complexity(0.076),reporting accuracy(0.057),and reporting timeliness(0.056);within the operational-support domain,the top three indicators were functional completeness(0.065),technical protocol(0.046),and full-time staffing status(0.032).Conclusions The evaluation index system of the monitoring system established in this study possesses good validity and reliability,providing a reference for evaluating the operation of the national sentinel surveillancem for acute respiratory infectious diseases.
【Key words】 Respiratory infectious diseases; Sentinel surveillance system; Delphi method; Analytic hierarchy process;
- 【文献出处】 中国预防医学杂志 ,Chinese Preventive Medicine , 编辑部邮箱 ,2026年04期
- 【分类号】R181.8
- 【下载频次】29