【摘要】 当前，中国工业经济不断改善，新动能加速成长，持续优化中国工业部门的产业结构是全面推进工业现代化与绿色化发展的重点。该研究构建了面向协同减污降碳目标与能源消费约束的产业结构优化模型，引入量化产业结构调整幅度的函数作为优化目标，基于模拟退火改进的遗传算法进行求解，设置产业结构维持稳定和持续调整两个情景，探究中国工业部门产业结构优化路径。结果表明：（1）在工业年均增长5.5%的中高速水平下，2030年（目标年）产业结构调整相对维持稳定，工业部门CO₂及污染物（SO₂、NO_x和颗粒物）的平均减排潜力为34.60%；（2）随着产业结构持续改进，目标年工业部门CO₂、SO₂和NO_x的排放量能够较好地控制在目标限额内，但颗粒物排放量的控制面临较大压力；（3）非金属制品、冶金以及电力热力工业领域高污染高碳排放行业的增加值占比呈现下降的趋势；（4）制造业持续发展，机械设备、交通运输和电子信息等技术含量高、环境影响小的行业将持续增长，制造业发达地区的产业结构优化将进入关键期。基于此提出：（1）持续优化升级工业部门产业结构是推动新型工业化、工业经济高质量发展的重要支撑；（2）加强对矿物采选、非金属制品以及金属冶炼行业颗粒物排放的监管力度；（3）牢牢把握电力热力行业的能源保障地位，实施保供与改造并行的策略，加快能源绿色转型步伐，持续推进以新能源为核心的能源结构优化；（4）坚定推动制造业向高端转型，以发展“含绿量”提升制造业“含金量”。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous improvement of China’s industrial economy and accelerating growth of new driving forces, optimizing the industrial structure of the country’s industrial sector persistently has become an essential task for promoting comprehensive industrial modernization and green development. Therefore, this study constructed an optimization model for industrial structure aimed at achieving synergistic pollution reduction and carbon control goals, while considering energy consumption constraints. The model incorporated a function to quantify the magnitude of industrial structure adjustments as the optimization objective. A genetic algorithm improved by simulated annealing was used to solve the model. Two scenarios were set up: maintaining stable industrial structure and continuous adjustment, to explore the pathways for optimizing China’s industrial sector structure. The results indicated that:（1） Under a medium-to-high annual average growth rate of 5.5% for industry, by 2030（target year）, with industrial structure adjustment relatively stable, the average potential for reducing CO₂ and air pollutants（SO₂, NO_x, and particulate matter） in China’s industrial sector would be 34.60%.（2） With continuous improvement in the industrial structure, by the target year, emissions of CO₂, SO₂, and NO_x from the industrial sector could be well controlled within target limits, but controlling particulate matter emission would pose a significant challenge.（3） The share of added value from high-pollution and high-carbon industries—such as non-metallic mineral products, metallurgy, and power and heat production—was projected to gradually decline.（4） China’s manufacturing industry would continue to develop（from 82% in the base year to 87% in the target year）, with high-tech-content and low-environmental-impact industries such as machinery equipment, transportation, and electronic information experiencing sustained growth, and developed manufacturing regions entering a critical period for industrial structural optimization. Based on these findings, this study proposes the following suggestions:（1） Continuously optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure is a significant foundation for driving Chinese new industrialization and highquality development of the industrial economy.（2） Regulatory efforts should be enhanced for particulate matter emissions in mineral extraction and processing, non-metallic product industries, and metal smelting.（3） It is essential to firmly maintain the strategic importance of the electricity and thermal power sectors in energy security systems by implementing a parallel strategy that combines supply guarantees with infrastructure upgrades and accelerates the pace of green energy transformation while continuously optimizing the energy structure centered on “new energy.”（4） It is important to stay steadfast in advancing China’s manufacturing industry towards highend transformation, thereby enhancing its value through green development initiatives.更多还原