【摘要】 基于陕西省苹果主产区1990-2022年统计数据与实地调查数据，采用基尼系数、重心迁移、空间自相关分析探究苹果生产布局时空演变，应用增强回归树探究苹果总产变化的影响因素，为优化苹果产业配置，推动产业高质量发展提供依据。结果表明：（1）研究期内主产区苹果发展呈快速增长、调整下降、转型升级和稳定提升4阶段演进；生产重心迁移轨迹呈现先南后北的特征，基尼系数从0.77降至0.71，说明产业集聚程度稍减，渭北北部2022年苹果总产占全省54.47%，保持核心产区地位；（2）苹果种植面积Moran’s I先增强至2010年的0.42继而下降至2022年的0.29，说明苹果生产空间布局结构调整，高集聚区集中于渭北北部并向北扩展，低集聚区分布于北部山地及渭北旱塬西部；（3）苹果总产变化受气象环境、技术进步、市场经济、社会发展、农业生产条件和政策环境共同作用，其中单产（38.85%）、农林牧渔业总产值（18.36%）、比较收益（17.91%）、农资总投入（10.52%）是影响程度排名前4的关键因子。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on statistical data and field survey data from the main apple producing region of Shaanxi province from 1990 to 2022, this study employed the Gini coefficient, center of gravity migration and spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of apple production layout. Additionally, boosted regression trees was applied to explore the influencing factors of total production changes, providing a basis for optimizing apple industry configuration and promoting high-quality industry development. The results showed that:(1) during the study period, the development of apples in the main producing region underwent four stages of evolution: boom, adjustment downturn, transition, stabilization and promotion. The trajectory of production center migration showed a pattern of first moving southward and then northward. The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.77 to 0.71, indicating a slight reduction in industrial agglomeration. In 2022, the total production in the northern Weibei accounted for 54.47% of the province’s total, maintaining its core production area status.(2) The Moran’s I for apple planting area first increased to 0.42 in 2010 and then decreased to 0.29 in 2022, indicating adjustments in the spatial layout structure of apple production. High agglomeration were concentrated in the northern Weibei region and expanding northward, while low agglomeration were distributed in the northern mountainous regions and the western Weibei dry plateau.(3) Changes in total production were influenced by meteorological enviroment, technological progress, market economy, social development, conditions of agricultural production and policy environment. Among these, production per hectare(38.85%), gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery(18.36%), comparative income(17.91%), and total agricultural inputs(10.52%) were the top four key factors influencing the extent of change.更多还原