【摘要】 逆全球化、贸易摩擦等多重不确定性因素引发全球价值链（GVC）安全性风险。数字化改变全球供应链和需求链嵌入方式并重塑国际产业分工，成为提升全球价值链韧性的强劲动能。基于“稳链强链”视角将GVC韧性定义为稳定性、安全性，利用2000—2020年OECD-ICIO数据库中世界各国行业投入产出数据，测算全球价值链韧性和数字化水平，并研究经济政策不确定性（EPU）外部冲击下产业数字化对GVC韧性的影响效应及作用机制。结果发现：在考虑经济政策不确定性冲击时，产业数字化对GVC安全性具有正向影响，却加剧了GVC波动性。作用机制检验表明：存在经济政策不确定性冲击时，产业数字化主要通过技术创新和服务化路径赋能GVC稳定性和安全性即提升韧性水平；考虑经济政策不确定性冲击，产业数字化通过贸易数字化加剧了GVC波动性和安全性风险，产业关联路径提升GVC安全性的同时加剧了GVC波动性，信息化路径则提升了GVC稳定性，对安全性的作用并不明显。该结论为外部冲击频发、不确定性高企的严峻形势下，以产业数字化赋能全球价值链安全稳定发展提供了理论依据与政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Multiple uncertainties such as anti-globalization and trade frictions have triggered global value chain(GVC)security risks. At the same time, digitalization changes the way global supply chains and demand chains are embedded and reshapes the international industrial division of labor, becoming a strong driving force for enhancing the resilience of global value chains. From the perspective of “stabilizing and strengthening industrial chains”, this paper defines GVC resilience as stability and security, and uses the input-output data of industries in various countries in the OECD-ICIO database from 2000 to 2020 to measure the resilience and digitization level of global value chains. Based on this, this paper studies the impact and mechanism of industrial digitization on GVC resilience under the external impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU). The results show that when considering the impact of economic policy uncertainty, industrial digitization has a positive impact on GVC security, it aggravates GVC volatility. The test of the mechanism of action in this paper shows that when there is an impact of economic policy uncertainty, industrial digitization mainly empowers GVC stability and security through technological innovation and service path, that is, to improve the level of resilience. However, when considering the impact of economic policy uncertainty, industrial digitization exacerbates GVC volatility and security risks through trade digitization. The industrial linkage path enhances GVC security while exacerbating GVC volatility. The informationization path enhances GVC stability but has no obvious effect on security. This conclusion provides a new theoretical basis and policy enlightenment for industrial digitally enabling the safe and stable development of global value chain under the severe situation of frequent external shocks and high uncertainty.更多还原