【摘要】 城市间高速公路和高铁的开通会通过时空压缩效应影响制造业异地投资，且两者在客运上存在替代效应，因此在不考虑城市间是否开通高速公路的情况下，会高估高铁开通效应。本文在匹配高速公路开通、高铁开通与制造业上市公司异地投资的城市对数据集的基础上，运用倾向得分匹配双重差分法和工具变量法实证估计了2009—2019年高铁开通对城市间制造业投资的影响。研究发现，在城市间高速公路开通的情况下，高铁开通会显著促进制造业上市公司异地投资，表现为投资企业数量的增加和投资规模的扩大，且结果保持稳健。进一步研究发现，在区域经济一体化政策的影响下，高铁开通效应在都市圈、省域、城市群、四大经济区域、南北方等区域内部更强，尤其是在都市圈尺度的差异最大；在扩散—回流效应的作用下，高铁开通整体上有利于推动中心城市向外围城市的资本流动和技术扩散，促进顺梯度投资，缩小城市间发展差距。更多还原

【Abstract】 The introduction of both expressways and high-speed rail(HSR) affects intercity manufacturing investment through time-space compression effects.Because these two transport modes can substitute for one another in passenger travel, empirical studies of HSR risk substantial overestimation if they fail to account for the parallel availability of expressway connections.To address this issue, this study constructs a matched city-pair dataset covering expressway openings, HSR openings, and cross-city manufacturing investments by listed firms.Using a combination of propensity score matching with difference-in-differences(PSM-DID) and instrumental variable(IV) estimation, we examine the impact of HSR on manufacturing investment over the period 2009–2019.The results indicate that, conditional on the presence of an expressway connection between cities, the opening of HSR significantly promotes cross-city manufacturing investment by listed companies.This effect is evident in both the number of investing firms and the overall scale of investment, and it holds up well under a series of robustness checks.Further analysis reveals that the HSR effect is stronger within integrated spatial units—such as metropolitan areas, provinces, city clusters, major economic regions, and across the North-South divide—with the sharpest contrast occurring at the metropolitan scale.Consistent with spread-backwash dynamics, HSR generally facilitates the flow of capital and technology from core cities to peripheral areas, encouraging pro-gradient investment and helping to narrow intercity development gaps.更多还原