【摘要】 利用1994—2023年近30 a的楚雄彝族自治州降水量资料和水稻产量数据，分析楚雄州干旱灾害对水稻产量的影响。研究发现，楚雄州干旱灾害的时间特征为：近15 a内干旱灾害发生的概率为33.33%,2009—2013年连续5年遭受了干旱灾害的影响；干旱周期为11 a, 2013年存在不显著突变；其空间特征为：楚雄州的西北部易发生干旱灾害。水稻的产量总体呈上升趋势，从整体趋势来看水稻单产量也呈现上升态势，单产量主要集中在7 700～8 500 kg/hm~2,但波动幅度较为明显。2009—2013年这连续5 a干旱年粮食单产低于平均值(8 111 kg/hm~2),洪涝年影响不明显。在选取影响水稻产量的7个因素中，干旱灾害的权重为16.655%,排在第3位，干旱灾害的发生会导致水稻的产量降低，且干旱胁迫越严重水稻产量越低。针对干旱灾害造成的水稻减产问题，提出了应该构建“四位一体”抗旱体系，保障楚雄州水稻稳产与农业可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the precipitation data and rice yield data of Chuxiong Prefecture over the past 30 years from 1994 to 2023,the impact of drought disasters in Chuxiong Prefecture on rice yield was analyzed.The research found that the temporal characteristics of drought disasters in Chuxiong Prefecture were as followed: the probability of drought disasters occurring within the past 15 years was 33.33%,and from 2009 to 2013,the area was affected by drought disasters for five consecutive years.The drought cycle lasts for 11 years, and there was a non-significant mutation in 2013.Its spatial characteristic is that the northwestern part of Chuxiong Prefecture is prone to drought disasters.The yield of rice has generally been on the rise.From the overall trend, the per-unit yield of rice has also shown an upward trend, with the per-unit yield mainly ranging from 7 700 to 8 500 kg per hectare, but the fluctuation range is quite significant.During the five consecutive years from 2009 to 2013,rice yield per hectare was lower than the average(8 111 kg/hm~2),and the impact of flood years was not significant.Among the 7 factors that affect rice yield, the weight of drought disasters is 16.655%,ranking third.The occurrence of drought disasters can lead to a decrease in rice yield, and the more severe the drought stress, the lower the rice yield.In response to the problem of reduced rice production caused by drought disasters, it is proposed to establish a “four in one” drought resistance system to ensure stable rice production and sustainable agricultural development in Chuxiong Prefecture.更多还原