【摘要】 在“双碳”战略深入推进与新型城镇化高质量发展协同演进新阶段，研究城市多中心结构对碳排放强度的影响及作用机制具有重要现实意义。基于2012—2022年中国260个地级市的面板数据，测度新质生产力综合水平，选取中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型，实证检验城市多中心结构对于碳排放强度的影响及其作用机制。结果表明，研究期内城市多中心结构对碳排放强度具有显著的抑制作用。机制检验发现，新质生产力发展与产业结构升级是城市多中心结构降低碳排放强度的关键途径。空间效应检验结果表明，城市多中心结构不仅能够促进本地城市碳排放强度的降低，而且对邻近城市的碳排放也产生了显著抑制作用。异质性检验表明，城市多中心结构在东、中部地区以及长江、黄河流域城市群范围内的碳减排效应更为显著。研究结论不仅为城市多中心结构的碳减排效应提供了经验借鉴，而且为多中心城市如何更好地降低碳排放强度提供了理论依据和政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the new stage marked by the co-evolution of the deepened implementation of “dual carbon” strategy and the high-quality development of new urbanization, it is of great practical significance to study the impact and mechanism of polycentric urban structures on carbon emission intensity. Based on the panel data from 260 Chinese cities at the prefectural level and above from 2012 to 2022, the comprehensive level of new-quality productive forces is measured. Using mediating effect model and spatial Durbin model, the study empirically tests the impact of polycentric urban structures on carbon emission intensity and the underlying mechanism. The results indicate that during the study period, polycentric urban structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity. Further mechanism tests finds out that the development of new quality productive forces and industrial structure upgrading are key pathways for polycentric urban structures to reduce carbon emission intensity. Spatial effect results show that polycentric urban structures not only promote the reduction of carbon emission intensity in the local cities but also exert a significant inhibitory effect on neighboring cities. Heterogeneity tests indicate that the carbon reduction effects of polycentric urban structures are more significant in cities in the eastern and central regions as well as within the urban clusters in Yangtze and Yellow River basins. These findings not only provide empirical references for the carbon reduction effect of polycentric urban structures but also offer theoretical basis and policy insights on how polycentric cities can better reduce carbon emission intensity.更多还原