【摘要】 通过构建嵌入数字化专项补贴的生产网络一般均衡模型，刻画补贴通过技术变革与要素重塑渠道对行业产出与碳排放的影响机制，并在此基础上开展多情景政策模拟，比较不同政策组合下的经济增长、产业结构与碳排放效应。研究表明：某一行业的数字化专项补贴不仅直接影响自身产出和碳排放，还会通过产业链传导产生显著的跨行业溢出效应；补贴效应存在明显的行业异质性，据此识别出石油煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼、化学原料制品、非金属矿物制品、有色金属冶炼及造纸业等六大减排潜力大、经济冲击小的重点行业；在政策选择方面，经济追赶阶段地区可通过对上游行业实施补贴，有效拉动制造业整体产出并促进产业结构升级；数字经济基础较好地区宜聚焦数字核心行业补贴，兼顾经济增长与碳排放控制；而碳约束严格地区则建议采用下游行业补贴策略，以最小化碳排放增量。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper develops a production network general equilibrium model incorporating dedicated digital subsidies to elucidate their impact on industrial output and carbon emissions through the dual channels of technological innovation and factor restructuring. Furthermore, multi-scenario policy simulations are conducted to compare the effects of different policy combinations on economic growth, industrial structure, and carbon emissions. The results reveal that dedicated digital subsidies in one sector not only directly affect its own output and carbon emissions but also generate significant cross-industry spillover effects through industrial chain linkages. The subsidy effects exhibit notable sectoral heterogeneity, leading to the identification of six key sectors with high emission reduction potential and low economic impact: petroleum and coal processing, ferrous metal smelting, chemical raw materials and products, non-metallic mineral products, non-ferrous metal smelting, and paper production. In terms of policy implications, economically catching-up regions could prioritize subsidies for upstream sectors to boost overall manufacturing output and advance industrial structure upgrading. Regions with a solid digital economy foundation should focus on supporting core digital sectors to balance economic growth and carbon emission control. For areas under strict carbon constraints, downstream sector subsidies are recommended to minimize emission increases.更多还原