【摘要】 重大工程因其制度结构碎片化、交付周期漫长及利益相关方诉求持续博弈等特征,使谈判管理成为项目成败的核心制约。然而,现有研究尚缺乏系统化动态分析框架,难以揭示海量项目文本中潜在谈判策略的演化规律,导致循证决策面临根本性障碍——传统方法囿于主观解读与静态分析,难以捕捉多重利益相关方压力下的动态谈判机理。为此,基于大语言模型构建认知分析框架,通过深度挖掘重大工程官方项目文档中的主张、论据及深层利益诉求,进而动态解析利益相关方谈判策略。创新性地构建谈判策略分布结构、冲突强度演进趋势、语义框架分歧度及策略惯性指数4项核心指标,实现全生命周期利益相关方谈判策略演化特征的多维表征。通过对广深港高速铁路香港段与港深创新及科技园两项跨境工程的纵向双案例研究,研究表明:不同利益相关方呈现差异化谈判演化路径,而交付导向的语义框架趋同与策略适应性调整可有效抑制冲突升级。理论贡献在于将大语言模型引入重大工程利益相关方谈判研究,构建一个可扩展的动态分析范式,拓展项目管理领域对谈判过程与治理机制的实证研究;实践意义在于为复杂制度环境下的冲突监测、利益协调与决策支持提供数据驱动的分析工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mega projects are characterized by institutional fragmentation, extended delivery cycles, and sustained stakeholder contestation, making effective negotiation management critical to project performance, particularly in crossborder settings. However, the lack of systematic and dynamic analytical frameworks capable of uncovering implicit negotiation strategies and their evolution within large volumes of project discourse remains a major obstacle to evidencebased management. Conventional approaches rely on subjective interpretation or static analysis and therefore struggle to capture evolving negotiation dynamics under prolonged political and operational pressure. To address this gap, this study proposes an LLM-driven cognitive analysis framework for the dynamic examination of stakeholder negotiation strategies in megaprojects. Leveraging the contextual reasoning and intent recognition capabilities of large language models, the framework extracts stakeholder claims, arguments, and underlying interests from longitudinal administrative texts. Four indicators—strategy distribution profile, conflict intensity trajectory, semantic frame divergence, and strategic persistence index—are developed to characterize strategic dominance, conflict dynamics, discursive alignment, and adaptive capacity under pressure across the project lifecycle. The framework is validated through longitudinal case studies of the Hong Kong section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park project. The analysis reveals differentiated negotiation trajectories across stakeholder groups and shows how delivery-oriented semantic alignment and strategic adaptation contributed to containing conflict escalation.By introducing a scalable and transferable LLM-based approach, this study advances empirical negotiation analysis in project management and provides decision makers with a data-supported tool for conflict situational awareness, dynamic interest coordination, and systematic learning in complex institutional environments.更多还原