【摘要】 为探究新气候态（1991—2020年）下黑龙江省夏季热量资源变化对寒地水稻生育期及产量的影响，本研究选取黑龙江省10个农业气象试验站30 a气候观测数据、水稻生育期观测数据及产量统计数据，运用线性倾向率法、线性回归方法及HP滤波法，分析夏季≥10℃活动积温、平均气温、最高/最低气温等热量因子的变化特征，及其与水稻生育期进程、产量构成的关联。结果表明，1991—2020年黑龙江省夏季热量资源呈显著上升趋势，其中≥10℃活动积温倾向率为36.89℃/10 a，最低气温增幅最大，为0.30℃/10 a），平均气温与最高气温增幅分别为0.15℃/10 a、0.14℃/10 a；从生长季日期来看，水稻抽穗期整体呈极显著提前趋势（倾向率为-4.8 d/10 a,P<0.01），乳熟期与成熟期波动变化相对较小；从生长季长度来看，抽穗期、乳熟期及生殖生长期均呈极显著延长的趋势(P<0.01)；近30 a水稻实际产量、趋势产量、气象产量均呈增加趋势，倾向率分别为804、775、29 kg/10 a；热量因子中，平均气温与抽穗期（P<0.01）、最低气温与抽穗期及乳熟期(P<0.01)呈极显著相关，平均气温距平每升高1℃，水稻气象产量增加110.87 kg/hm~2。研究表明，新气候态下夏季热量资源增加是寒地水稻生育期延长、产量提升的核心气候驱动因子，为寒地水稻气候资源高效利用及品种布局优化提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the variations in summer heat resources across Heilongjiang Province under the new climate state(1991–2020) and their impacts on the growth period and yield of cold-region rice, this study utilized 30-year datasets encompassing climatic observation records, rice phenological monitoring data, and yield statistics from 10 agro-meteorological experimental stations. Employing the linear trend rate method,linear regression analysis, and the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter, we analyzed the change characteristics of key thermal factors in summer, including ≥10℃ active accumulated temperature, mean temperature, and maximum/minimum temperatures, and their associations with rice phenological progression and yield components. The results showed that the summer heat resources in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2020 had shown a significant upward trend. The tendency rate of active accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ was 36.89℃/10 a, and the increase in the minimum temperature was the largest, at 0.30℃/10 a. The increases in average temperature and maximum temperature were 0.15℃/10 a and 0.14℃/10 a respectively. From the perspective of the growing season dates, the heading date of rice showed a highly significant trend of advancing(with a tendency rate of-4.8 days per 10 years, P<0.01), while the milk-ripe stage and the maturity stage fluctuated relatively less. In terms of the length of the growing season, the heading stage, the milk stage and the reproductive growth period all showed a highly significant trend of extension(P<0.01). Over the past 30 years, the actual yield, trend yield,and meteorological yield of rice in Heilongjiang Province all exhibited a consistent increasing trend, with linear tendency rates of 804 kg per decade, 775 kg per decade, and 29 kg per decade, respectively. Among the thermal factors, mean temperature showed a highly significant correlation with the heading stage(P<0.01),while minimum temperature was highly significantly correlated with both the heading stage and milk-ripe stage(P<0.01). For every 1℃ increase in the mean temperature anomaly, the meteorological yield of rice increased by 110.87 kg per hectare. This study demonstrates that the enhancement of summer thermal resources under the new climate state(1991–2020) serves as the core climatic driver for the prolonged growth period and increased yield of cold-region rice. These findings provide a scientific basis for the efficient utilization of climatic resources and the optimization of variety distribution for cold-region rice cultivation.更多还原