【摘要】 针对岩溶地区隧洞穿越断层带的突水风险评估难题，提出了一种融合多源信息的渐进式动态评估方法。构建了包含4个一级指标和11个二级指标的评估体系，采用改进博弈论优化权重分配，然后引入相对劣化度与云模型实现施工前静态风险评估，并接入施工过程中实时监测数据，通过云模型迭代算法实现风险等级随开挖进度的动态更新。以秦岭输水隧洞K13+500～K14+500洞段为例，其突水风险静态评估结果为Ⅳ级，随着隧洞开挖的推进，风险等级演化过程为Ⅳ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅱ级，整体呈现波动下降并趋于稳定的态势，预测涌水量范围为0.1×10~4～1.0×10~4m~3/d与0.01×10~4～0.10×10~4m~3/d，与实测涌水量范围(0.10×10~4～0.80×10~4m~3/d)高度一致。结果表明，该方法能有效反映隧洞施工期突水风险演化特征，可为类似工程的突水风险预警与防控提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To address the challenge of water inrush risk assessment for tunnels traversing fault zones in karst regions,we proposed a progressive dynamic assessment method integrating multi-source information.An evaluation system comprising four first-level and eleven second-level indicators was established,and an improved game theory method was used to optimize weight allocation. Relative deterioration degree and a cloud model were introduced to perform static risk assessment prior to construction. During excavation,real-time monitoring data were incorporated to dynamically update the risk level through an iterative cloud model. The static assessment of the Qinling Tunnel section K13 + 500-K14 + 500 indicated that this section was at level Ⅳ risk. With excavation progress,the risk level evolved as Ⅳ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅱ,showing an overall fluctuating but decreasing and stabilizing trend. The predicted water inflow ranges(1.0 × 10~3-10. 0 × 10~3m~3/d and 0.1 × 10~3-1.0 × 10~3m~3/d) were consistent with the measured inflow range(1.0 × 10~3-8.0 × 10~3m~3/d). The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively captures construction-stage risk evolution and provides a scientific basis for water inrush early warning and prevention in similar projects.更多还原