【摘要】 为优化黄河流域水-风-光多能互补系统的规划与调度，亟需系统揭示水资源、风能和太阳能三类可再生资源的时空演变规律及其协同互补特征。基于1980—2018年高分辨率网格再分析数据，综合运用气候统计特征分析、经验正交函数(EOF)及联合EOF(JEOF)方法，定量评估三类资源的时空变异性与互补潜力。结果表明:径流深在夏季达到峰值，高值区集中于上游源区及下游山东段，并呈现显著的年际波动与长期上升趋势;风速高值主要集中于中上游地区，春冬季最为突出，且年际变率最大;地表太阳辐射强度在春夏季最强，上游源区显著高于中下游，整体呈上升趋势，但夏季上游因水汽含量增加导致云量增多，辐射反而有所减弱; EOF分析揭示了三类资源变化的主导空间模态，第一模态均表现为全流域一致性变化，第二模态则呈现出上中下游间的反向变化特征; JEOF分析显示，风-光资源之间缺乏显著的反向变化关系，互补性整体偏弱，而水-风与水-光组合的互补性更为突出，主要分布于水资源丰富、风光条件较好的中上游地区。更多还原

【Abstract】 To optimize the hydro-wind-solar energy complementary system in the Yellow River Basin,it is essential to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics and synergy of these three renewable resources.Based on the high definition gridded reanalysis data of 1980-2018,we employed climatic statistics,empirical orthogonal function( EOF) analysis,and joint EOF decomposition to evaluate the spatiotemporal variability and complementarity potential. The results show that runoff depth reached its maximum in summer over the upstream source region and the downstream Shandong area,accompanied by notable interannual fluctuations and an overall increasing trend. High wind speeds were mainly concentrated in the middle and upper reaches,with the most pronounced values and largest interannual variability in spring and winter. Solar radiation peaked in spring and summer,and it was significantly higher in the upstream source region than in other areas. Although radiation exhibited a general upward trend across the basin,a decline was observed in the upstream area during summer due to increased water vapor. EOF analysis reveals the dominant spatial modes of resource variability,the first mode represents basin-wide coherent variations,whereas the second mode reflects out-of-phase patterns among the upper,middle,and lower reaches. Further results from the joint EOF decomposition indicate that wind-solar out-of-phase behavior was generally weak,resulting in limited wind-solar complementarity. In contrast,hydro-wind and hydro-solar complementarity is more pronounced,primarily concentrated in the middle and upper reaches where water availability is high and wind-solar conditions are favorable.更多还原