【摘要】 白龙江流域是中国泥石流灾害链最发育、成灾最严重的地区之一。笔者以支撑服务白龙江流域特大地质链防灾减灾为目的，选取甘肃省舟曲县寨子沟泥石流为研究对象，通过现场勘查测绘，结合多期遥感数据、室内试验测试及数值模拟成果资料，着重对泥石流的发育特征、形成条件及演化模式进行深入探讨，提出了泥石流灾害链风险防范建议。结果表明：寨子沟为一条沟谷型泥石流，沟床纵比降为324.5‰，高位物源量达2 129.23×10~4 m~3；其关键成灾地貌独特、必要孕灾地层和控灾构造复杂、重要激发条件显著，具备发生特大泥石流灾害链的所有条件；该灾害链的演化模式为高位崩滑–堰塞体溃决–泥石流–堰塞湖–溃决洪水灾害链。在此基础上，笔者认为，白龙江流域特大泥石流灾害链风险防控应重点强化灾害链调查与识别能力、攻关灾害链监测预警预报与风险防控技术、加强灾害链工程防灾减灾与应急处置能力建设等。从流域角度根据不同风险区特征和关键问题，构建“早期识别+防止+调控+预防”为一体的寨子沟泥石流流域性灾害链风险防控模式，该模式可供西部山区类似特大泥石流灾害链防灾减灾提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Bailong River Basin is one of the most developed and serious areas of debris flow disaster chain in China. In order to support and serve the disaster prevention and mitigation of the large geological chain in Bailong River Basin, the debris flow in Zhaizigou, Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, was selected as the research object. Through on-site survey and mapping, combined with multi-period remote sensing data, laboratory test and numerical simulation results, the development characteristics, formation conditions and evolution model of debris flow were discussed in depth. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on preventing the risk of debris flow disaster chain.The results show that: Zhaizigou is a gully type debris flow, the longitudinal slope of the gully bed is 324.5‰, and the high level source amount is 2 129.23×10~4 m~3. The key disaster landform of Zhaizigou is unique, the necessary disaster formation and disaster control structure are complex, and the important triggering conditions are obvious, which has all the conditions for the occurrence of a huge debris flow disaster chain. The evolution model of the disaster chain is the disaster chain of high level collapse-barrier body collapse-debris flow, barrier lake and outburst flood. On this basis, it is proposed that the risk prevention and control of the disaster chain of the huge mudflow in Bailong River basin should focus on strengthening the disaster chain investigation and identification ability, tackling the key disaster chain monitoring, early warning,forecasting and risk prevention and control technology, and strengthening the disaster chain project disaster prevention and reduction and emergency disposal capacity. Finally, according to the characteristics and key problems of different risk areas from the perspective of river basin, the risk prevention and control model of Zhaizigou debris flow disaster chain risk prevention and control is constructed, which can provide reference for the disaster prevention and reduction of similar massive debris flow disaster chain in western mountainous areas.更多还原