【摘要】 耕地破碎化是影响农业生产效率的重要因素之一.为了探索耕地破碎化的变化特征及其影响因素，并为缓解破碎化提供依据，本研究采用地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析法对2012年与2022年耕地破碎化特征进行对比分析.通过空间分异性分析，利用多尺度地理加权回归模型探讨破碎化的影响因素.研究显示：2012至2022年间，山东省耕地的斑块数量增加，总面积略有下降，平均斑块面积显著减少，耕地破碎程度整体上略有升高，2012年以鲁中南山地丘陵区、鲁东丘陵区及鲁北滨海平原区较为严重，与2012年相比，2022年鲁北滨海平原区破碎程度略有减小，但鲁西平原区破碎化程度增加.山东省耕地破碎化主要受城镇化率、国内生产总值(GDP)、人口格局多方面因素影响.山东省耕地破碎化呈现出“总体略增、向东扩散、集聚增强”的空间特征，既受到城市化与经济增长等宏观因素影响，也受到农业投入与人口格局等微观驱动因素的共同作用.更多还原

【Abstract】 Farmland fragmentation is one of the important factors affecting agricultural productivity. In order to explore the changing characteristics of farmland fragmentation and its influencing factors, and to provide a basis for mitigating fragmentation, this study used the spatial analysis method of Geographic Information System(GIS) to compare the characteristics of farmland fragmentation between 2012 and 2022. The influencing factors of fragmentation were explored through spatial dissimilarity analysis using a multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The study shows that from 2012 to 2022, the number of patches of farmland in Shandong Province increased, the total area slightly decreased, the average patch area significantly decreased, and the overall farmland fragmentation slightly increased. In 2012, the mountainous and hilly areas in the central part of Shandong Province, the hilly areas in the eastern part of Shandong Province, and the coastal plain areas in the north of Shandong Province were more severely fragmented. Compared with 2012, the fragmentation in the coastal plain area of Shandong Province slightly decreased in 2022, but the fragmentation in the plain area of western Shandong increased. The fragmentation of farmland in Shandong Province is mainly affected by factors such as urbanization rate, gross domestic product(GDP), and population structure. The farmland fragmentation in Shandong Province shows a spatial characteristic of “slight overall increase, eastward diffusion, and enhanced aggregation”, which is influenced by both macro factors such as urbanization and economic growth, as well as micro driving factors such as agricultural investment and population structure.更多还原