【摘要】 第二次世界大战结束后,追求全球海上优势和控制海洋就是美国海上战略的基石,也是美国整个国家安全战略和大战略的前提。然而,自2021年以来,美国日益接受了海上均势和拒止的概念。在全球海上格局逆转、海上力量对比巨变和美国国内政治极化三大因素的综合作用下,美国海上战略无疑正面临从追求优势到接受均势的世纪重构。为此,美国将加大向盟友转嫁责任及成本,制定性价比更高的灵活反应战略,更加倚重水下和无人体系,并试图振兴海洋基础设施及制造业,同时大幅减少对全球海洋安全公共产品的供给。其目标是在全球重点海域维系对美国有利的力量平衡,并拒止主要对手开展重大军事行动。对于美国和世界而言,这种重构都是颠覆性的战略性改变,也注定是一个长期的过程,虽然期间纠结与反复在所难免,但长期发展趋势已然确立,美国未来海上战略规划方向难以根本性逆转。长期来看,这种重构有利于维系全球海上战略稳定、缓和大国竞争,但短期来看,反而会加剧热点海域的局势动荡、刺激美国更肆意地破坏国际海洋秩序。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the end of World War Ⅱ,the pursuit of global maritime superiority and sea control became the cornerstone of U.S.maritime strategy and a foundational element of its overall national security and grand strategy.However,since 2021,the U.S.has increasingly embraced the concepts of maritime balance of power and sea denial.Driven by a structural reversal in global maritime power dynamics,a dramatic shift in the balance of maritime power,and deepening domestic political polarization in the U.S.,U.S.maritime strategy is undoubtedly undergoing a historic restructuring,shifting from a pursuit of superiority to an acceptance of a balance of power.To this end,the U.S.will offload greater responsibility and costs to its allies,develop more cost-effective flexible response strategies,rely more heavily on underwater and unmanned systems,and seek to revitalize maritime infrastructure and manufacturing,while significantly scaling back its provision of public goods for global maritime security.Its objective is to sustain a balance of power favorable to the U.S.in strategically vital sea areas and deny adversaries the capability to conduct major military operations.For both the U.S.and the world,this restructuring represents a disruptive strategic shift that is destined to be a long-term process.While policy vacillations and tactical reversals are inevitable,the long-term trend has been set,and the direction of U.S.future maritime strategic planning is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed.In the long run,this restructuring is conducive to maintaining global maritime strategic stability and easing great power competition.In the short term,however,it may exacerbate the instability in hotspot waters and prompt the U.S.to act with greater disregard for the existing international maritime order.更多还原