【摘要】 无人飞行器的飞行动力学模型、导引律与控制律是轨迹规划与优化及飞行品质评估的基础，但其精度易受飞行器质量、发动机推力、导引头噪声等多源不确定因素干扰，导致路径偏离。针对该问题，以导弹为研究对象，建立一套可量化考虑上述不确定因素的飞行动力学与导控一体化分析框架。首先，构建六自由度非线性动力学模型并线性化；其次，基于极点配置设计三通道自动驾驶仪，结合比例导引律形成完整导控回路；接着，嵌入参数不确定性，通过蒙特卡洛打靶获取脱靶量区间分布；最后，采用Sobol’全局敏感度分析辨识关键误差源。结果表明，在静止目标、匀速直线运动目标及圆周运动目标场景下，脱靶量主要受气动参数与满载质量耦合影响，该方法可为无人飞行器的不确定性仿真分析及可靠性与鲁棒性设计提供有效参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The flight dynamics models, guidance laws, and control laws of unmanned aerial vehicles form the foundation for trajectory planning, optimization, and flight quality evaluation. However, their accuracy is susceptible to disturbances from multi-source uncertainties such as vehicle mass, engine thrust, and seeker noise, leading to path deviations. To address this issue, this study focuses on missiles and establishes an integrated analysis framework for flight dynamics and guidance-control that quantitatively incorporates the aforementioned uncertainties. First, a six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamics model is constructed and linearized. Secondly, a three-channel autopilot is designed based on pole placement, combined with proportional navigation guidance to form a complete guidance-control loop. Subsequently, parameter uncertainties are embedded, and the distribution range of miss distances is obtained through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, Sobol global sensitivity analysis is employed to identify key error sources. The results indicate that, in scenarios involving stationary targets, uniformly moving linear targets, and circularly moving targets, miss distances are primarily influenced by the coupling of aerodynamic parameters and fully-loaded mass. This methodology provides an effective reference for uncertainty simulation analysis, reliability, and robustness design of unmanned aerial vehicles.更多还原