经济转型与制度型开放——以上海为例

【摘要】 <正>重新认识经济转型、改革与制度型开放经济学通常用“转型”来描述一个拥有成功增长模式的经济体，如何去应对这种增长模式最终面临的效力衰减问题。这其实不容易做到。如果我们看战后东亚早期工业化的经济体，特别是日本和韩国，在经历高增长阶段并进入经济更成熟的发展阶段后，其后续的转型并未取得成功。原因何在？首先，发展阶段的转变虽然是必然趋势，但难以被直接观察到。政府在维持先前高增长模式的过程中往往形成了惯性思维，对经济发展阶段转变后的很多经济政策并没有做好调整的准备，甚至缺乏基本的预判。其次，当经济的潜在增速放缓之后，政府往往误以为是宏观层面的问题，从而会在宏观政策上选择刺激总需求来维持高增长，但这种做法难以持续，反而经常催生资产泡沫，积累巨额债务，进而拖累经济后续的健康发展，甚至使经济陷入紧缩的状态。更多还原

【Abstract】 The year 2026 marks the beginning of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. The core issue for China’s mediumand long-term high-quality development is how to establish a new system of higher-level open economy through institutional opening-up, deepen reforms to further smoothen the domestic circulation, and achieve transformation and upgrading of the development paradigm through synergistic resonance. Based on the roundtable discussion on “High-Quality Development in the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’: Institutional Opening-Up and Smooth Domestic Circulation”, we have specially invited relevant experts and scholars to engage in in-depth discussions on the reform path, policy innovation, and linkage mechanism for strengthening domestic circulation and institutional opening-up. The outcomes of the meeting are published in two installments. Yin Yanlin pointed out that the current breakthroughs are still limited to “points” and have not achieved an open trend on a “plane”. The fields of telecommunications, education, healthcare, finance, and pilot demonstration are the key directions for further opening up. Professor Zhang Jun pointed out that institutional openness is the core path to break through development boundaries, and took Shanghai as an example to analyze its institutional “software” shortcomings. Researcher Liu Peilin proposed that expanding export credit to drive equipment renewal can boost domestic demand and optimize foreign aid allocation. This approach serves as a feasible convergence point for facilitating smooth domestic and international circulation and achieving joint development with the world.Professor Lv Yue pointed out that the restructuring of global industrial chains is exhibiting new trends characterized by localization, diversification, digitalization and intelligence, as well as green transformation. Rule alignment, factor mobility, division of labor and cooperation, and institutional safeguards constitute the mechanism through which institutional openness inffllfluences the security of industrial and supply chains.Professor Zhang Xueliang pointed out that regional coordination lays a solid foundation for high-level opening-up to the outside world. He proposed promoting the development of inland-port-centered global cities, constructing a “small diamond rhombus” regional layout in the central and western regions, and enhancing both international competitiveness and regional development coordination. Professor Li Shi proposed the establishment of a unified national market for production factors, further advancing inclusive reforms with a focus on key areas such as the household registration system, land system, taxation and transfer payment systems, and affordable housing policies. Professor Huang Shaoqing proposed the “service-driven manufacturing” model, aiming to thoroughly break the dual theoretical curses and promote industrial upgrading in the manufacturing sector as well as improve the quality and efficiency of China’s economy by creating an institutional environment, optimizing competitive mechanisms, and facilitating the transformation of policy paradigms.更多还原