【摘要】 为了系统梳理煤岩储层伤害评价方法的发展脉络，解决该领域因信息零散导致的储层伤害防控方法选择困难问题，采用文献计量与时间序列分析相结合的研究方法，对1982—2023年间相关文献进行了解构评述与趋势建模分析。研究结果表明：(1)在所构建的文献数量随时间变化模型中，以3年及6年为考察周期的方程决定系数分别达0.755 5和0.799 4，表明中长期趋势拟合良好，可用于揭示煤岩储层伤害评价方法发展的整体规律，而以1年为周期的模型受短期波动影响显著，解释能力有限；(2)分别对物理法与数字法两类评价方法进行趋势拟合发现，在3年与6年考察周期下，两类方法文献数量均与时间呈正相关，其中物理法的决定系数分别为0.756 9和0.840 1，数字法则分别为0.582 0和0.677 8，说明物理法的发展趋势更为稳定和显著；(3)从增长态势来看，物理法与数字法在早期文献数量接近，但在3年与6年周期拟合中，物理法的增长斜率（分别为1.156 0和4.607 1）远高于数字法（分别为0.107 7和0.428 6），表明物理法占据主导地位并保持较快发展。结论认为，物理法在未来一段时间内仍是煤岩储层伤害评价的主要技术手段；物理法面临的样本局限性与评价周期长等问题，可通过与数字法融合的途径予以改善；“物数融合”的煤岩储层伤害评价方法有望为加快煤层气勘探开发进程提供有力的技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to systematically review the development trajectory of coal-rock reservoir damage evaluation methods, and address the challenges in selecting appropriate damage prevention and control methods due to fragmented information, dissection and trend modeling were conducted on relevant literatures published during 1982-2023 through a research approach integrating bibliometric and time-series analyses. The following results are obtained.(i) For the constructed model of changing volume of literature over time, the determination coefficients of equations for the 3-year and 6-year observation periods are 0.755 5 and 0.799 4, respectively, indicating a satisfactory fitting of medium-and long-term trends. The equations can be used to reveal the overall development pattern of coal-rock reservoir damage evaluation methods. In contrast, the equation corresponding to 1-year observation period is significantly affected by short-term fluctuations and thus provides a limited interpretability.(ii) The trend fitting for physical and digital evaluation methods shows that both methods exhibit positive correlation between the volume of literature and time for 3-year and 6-year periods. The determination coefficients of the physical method are 0.756 9 and 0.840 1, respectively, while those of the digital method are 0.582 0 and 0.677 8, respectively, indicating that the physical method evolves in a more stable and remarkable trend.(iii) In view of growth trend, the physical and digital methods are similar in the literature volume in the early stage; however, according to the fitting for 3-year and 6-year periods, the physical method reflects growth slopes(1.156 0 and 4.607 1) much higher than those(0.107 7 and 0.428 6) of the digital method, implying that the physical method is dominant and maintains a fast development. It is concluded that the physical method will remain the key evaluation option for a long time in the future. Issues such as sample limitation and prolonged evaluation period associated with the method can be addressed by the integration with the digital method. The integrated physical-digital method for coal-rock reservoir damage evaluation is expected to provide a powerful support for accelerating exploration and development of coalbed methane.更多还原