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经济政策不确定性与企业就业变动:创造抑或破坏
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Changes in Corporate Employment: Creating or Destroying
【摘要】 企业是就业创造、就业促进和就业稳定的重要载体。基于劳动分工理论,利用2010—2022年中国沪深A股上市企业数据,考察经济政策不确定性对企业就业变动的影响。结果显示:经济政策不确定性通过降低就业创造和加剧就业破坏两个途径显著降低了企业就业净增长,该效应在不同行业、地区的企业间呈现显著异质性。机制分析表明,面对经济政策不确定性的加剧,企业会从劳动力调整成本、技术创新成本和市场交易成本等三个方面降低用工成本,进而减少劳动力使用量。因此,应加快推进产业链供应链建设、营造技术创新环境、加强数字平台建设,持续增强企业的就业吸纳能力,确保国家支持企业稳岗扩岗目标的顺利达成。
【Abstract】 Enterprises are key carriers for job creation, promotion, and stability. Based on the theory of division of labor, this article examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on employment changes in Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2022 using relevant data. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces the net employment growth of enterprises through two pathways: Reducing employment creation and exacerbating employment destruction. This effect shows significant heterogeneity among enterprises of different industries and regions. Mechanism analysis shows that in the face of increasing economic policy uncertainty, enterprises will reduce labor costs from three aspects: Labor adjustment costs, technological innovation costs and market transaction costs, thereby reducing labor usage. Based on this, it is suggested to accelerate the construction of industrial and supply chains, create a technological innovation environment, strengthen the construction of digital platforms, continuously enhance the employment absorption capacity of enterprises, and ensure the smooth achievement of the goal of national support for enterprises to stabilize and expand employment.
【Key words】 economic policy uncertainty; changes in enterprise employment; employment creation; employment destruction;
- 【文献出处】 产经评论 ,Industrial Economic Review , 编辑部邮箱 ,2026年01期
- 【分类号】F120;F279.2;F249.2
- 【下载频次】32