【摘要】 “双碳”战略下，市场化环境规制政策正深刻重塑工业企业生产决策。企业需在减排约束下，平衡增长、降碳与稳定就业等多重目标。探究碳交易试点政策产生的就业影响，对协同推进企业绿色转型与社会稳定具有重要意义。基于2009—2024年A股工业企业面板数据，运用多期双重差分模型，实证检验碳交易试点政策对企业就业规模的影响机制，探究生态环境保护与社会充分就业协同实现的双重红利路径。研究表明，碳交易试点政策显著扩大了工业企业就业规模；该政策主要通过产出扩张效应与要素替代效应双重路径促进就业；就业促进效应在大型城市、非资源型城市、非国有企业、新成立企业、制造业及重工业企业中更为突出。进一步分析显示，该政策存在显著正向空间溢出效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the background of the dual-carbon strategy, market-oriented environmental regulation policies profoundly reshape the production decisions of industrial enterprises. Restricted by emission reduction constraints, enterprises need to balance multiple objectives including economic growth, carbon reduction and employment stability. Exploring the employment effects generated by the carbon trading pilot policies is of great significance for the coordinated advancement of corporate green transformation and social stability. Based on the panel data of A-share industrial enterprises from 2009 to 2024, this study adopts the multi-period difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the influencing mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on corporate employment scale, and explore the double dividend path for the coordinated realization of ecological environment protection and full social employment. The results indicate that carbon trading pilot policies effectively expand the employment scale of industrial enterprises. Such policies boost employment mainly through two paths, namely the output expansion effect and factor substitution effect. The employment promotion effect is more prominent in large cities, non-resource-based cities, non-state-owned enterprises, newly established enterprises, manufacturing enterprises and heavy industry enterprises. Further analysis reveals that the policies present a significant positive spatial spillover effect.更多还原