【摘要】 目的:了解连云港市2014—2024年急性心肌梗死(AMI)发病流行特征，为全市开展相关预防工作提供依据。方法:选取江苏省心脑血管监测报告系统中发病时间为2014年1月1日至2024年12月31日AMI发病数据，计算全市发病率、标化发病率、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)等数据指标，分析全市AMI发病时间变化趋势。建立GM(1,1)灰色模型预测2025—2029年连云港市AMI发病情况。结果:2014—2024年连云港市AMI发病43 885例，年均粗发病率为74.96/10万，年均标化发病率为57.21/10万，Joinpoint分析结果显示，年均粗发病率和标化发病率均呈逐年上升趋势，AAPC分别为8.65、6.33(均P<0.05)。连云港市男性AMI粗发病率(83.43/10万)及标化发病率(71.75/10万)均高于女性(粗发病率65.71/10万、标化发病率45.55/10万)。男女粗发病率、标化发病率均呈逐年上升趋势，男性粗发病率、女性粗发病率、男性标化发病率、女性标化发病率AAPC分别为10.07%、6.72%、8.19%、3.34%(均P<0.05)。城市居民合计、城市居民男性、城市居民女性发病率、标化发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.05)。农村居民合计、男性标化发病率呈上升趋势，农村女性标化发病率变化趋势无统计学意义。2014—2024年连云港市居民合计和男性AMI<35岁、35岁～、45岁～、55岁～、65岁～、75岁～、≥85岁等各年龄组随年龄增长呈现上升趋势，其中35岁～组发病率上升趋势最为明显。预测表明，2029年连云港市AMI全人群发病率可能达到151.88/10万，男性191.92/10万，女性111.83/10万，城市236.48/10万，农村132.02/10万。结论:2014—2024年连云港市AMI发病率呈逐年上升趋势，中老年人、青年男性是AMI防治的重点人群。2025—2029年连云港市AMI全人群、男性、女性、城市及农村发病率可能持续上升，AMI的防控仍然不容忽视，需要加强。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To investigate the incidence characteristics of acute myocardial infarction( AMI) in Lianyungang from 2014 to 2024,and to provide evidence for the development of relevant prevention strategies.Methods: AMI incidence data from January 1,2014,to December 31,2024,were extracted from the Jiangsu Provincial Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Surveillance and Reporting System. Incidence, agestandardized incidence,and average annual percentage change( AAPC) were calculated to analyze the temporal trends. GM( 1,1) grey model was established to predict AMI incidence from 2025 to 2029. Results: From 2014 to2024,43 885 AMI cases were reported in Lianyungang,with a crude incidence of 74. 96/100 000 and an agestandardized incidence of 57. 21/100 000. Joinpoint analysis showed increasing trends for both crude and agestandardized incidence,with AAPCs of 8. 65 and 6. 33,respectively( both P < 0. 05). Male crude incidence( 83. 43/100 000) and age-standardized incidence( 71. 75/100 000) were higher than those in females( crude incidence: 65. 71/100 000; age-standardized incidence: 45. 55/100 000). Upward trends were observed in both sexes; AAPCs were 10. 07% for male crude incidence,6. 72% for female crude incidence,8. 19% for male agestandardized incidence,and 3. 34% for female age-standardized incidence( all P < 0. 05). Urban residents( overall,males,and females) showed significant upward trends in both crude and age-standardized incidence( all P < 0. 05). Rural residents and rural males also showed upward trends in total and age-standardized incidence,while no significant trend was observed in age-standardized incidence among rural females. AMI incidence increased with age across all groups,with the most pronounced increase in males aged 35-39 years. By 2029,predicted AMI incidence may reach 151. 88/100 000 overall( 191. 92/100 000 in males,111. 83/100 000 in females), with urban and rural rates projected at 236. 48/100 000 and 132. 02/100 000, respectively.Conclusion: AMI incidence in Lianyungang increases significantly from 2014 to 2024. Middle-aged and elderly individuals,as well as young males are the focus populations for prevention and control. From 2025 to 2029,AMI incidence among the general population,males,females,and urban and rural residents in Lianyungang may continue to rise,and the prevention and control of AMI should not be ignored and should be strengthened.更多还原