【摘要】 针对高速铁路新线开通初期客流预测系统性不足的问题，聚焦区域高速铁路新线客流预测研究。现有客流预测方法在规划阶段忽略了线路特征，在设计阶段主要关注单条线路，而面向运营的开通初期又较少考虑后续新线接入对本线客流的影响。鉴于我国高速铁路持续快速发展，特别是区域加密、补强的高速铁路线路，通常具有突出的服务区域路网的功能导向，诸如开行方案等运输组织的调整优化须统筹新线与既有线路，以系统提升路网整体效能。为此，提出一种考虑路网变化与线路特征的区域高速铁路新线客流预测方法，在四阶段法框架下优化高速铁路新线与既有线的客流分配过程，并引入基于相似线路的参数标定机制。以池黄高速铁路新线开通为例对所提方法进行了应用与检验，预测结果总体相对误差为6%，研究成果可为新线投运后区域高速铁路网络的运输组织协同优化提供支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 To address the problem of systematic deficiency in passenger flow forecasting for newly opened high speed railway lines during the initial opening stage, this paper focused on the research of passenger flow forecasting for newly opened regional high speed railway lines. Existing passenger flow forecasting methods ignore line characteristics in the planning stage, mainly focus on single lines in the design stage, and rarely consider the impact of subsequent new line access on the passenger flow of the line itself during the operation-oriented initial opening stage. Given the continuous and rapid development of China’s high speed railway, especially high speed railway lines for regional densification and reinforcement, which usually have a prominent function orientation of serving the regional network, the adjustment and optimization of transport organization such as train operation schemes must coordinate new lines and existing lines to systematically improve the overall efficiency of the network. For this reason, a passenger flow forecasting method for newly opened regional high speed railway lines considering network evolution and line characteristics was proposed. The method optimized the passenger flow allocation process between newly opened high speed railway lines and existing lines under the framework of the four-stage method and introduced a parameter calibration mechanism based on similar lines. The proposed method was applied and tested using the opening of the new Chizhou-Huangshan High Speed Railway as an example. The overall relative error of the prediction results is 6%. The research results can provide support for the collaborative optimization of transport organization in the regional high speed railway network after the commissioning of new lines.更多还原