【摘要】 为探究农业生产性服务、农地流转及两者交互效应对农业碳排放强度的影响及其背后的机制，测度中国2005—2023年30个省份的农业碳排放强度和农业技术进步，利用双向固定效应模型和调节效应模型进行计量分析。结果表明：（1）农业生产性服务和农地流转均降低了农业碳排放强度，这一结论在稳健性检验后仍然成立。（2）农业生产性服务和农地流转在降低农业碳排放强度上存在交互效应，主要表现为协同效应。（3）农业技术进步在农业生产性服务、农地流转抑制农业碳排放强度中起正向调节作用。（4）在不同地区，农业生产性服务和农地流转对农业碳排放强度的影响具有差异。东部地区、小农地经营规模地区的农业生产性服务和农地流转能显著降低农业碳排放强度，其他地区无显著影响。因此，要因地制宜、协同发展农业生产性服务和农地流转，以降低农业碳排放强度。更多还原

【Abstract】 To explore the impact of agricultural productive services, farmland transfer, and their synergistic effects on agricultural carbon emission intensity and the underlying mechanisms, this paper measures the agricultural carbon emission intensity and agricultural technological progress of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2023. Using a two-way fixed effect model and a moderation effect model, an econometric analysis is conducted. Results show that:(1) Agricultural productive services and farmland transfer have both reduced agricultural carbon emission intensity, and this conclusion still holds true after robustness testing.(2) There is an interactive effect between agricultural productive services and land transfer in reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity, mainly manifested as synergistic effect.(3) The progress of agricultural technology plays a positive regulatory role in agricultural production services and farmland transfer to suppress agricultural carbon emission intensity.(4) The impact of agricultural productive services and farmland transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity varies in different regions. Agricultural productive services and farmland transfer in the eastern region and small-scale farming areas can significantly reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity, while there is no significant impact in other regions. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt measures to local conditions and coordinate the development of agricultural productive services and farmland transfer, in order to reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity.更多还原