【摘要】 促进制造业碳减排和碳排放脱钩是实现“双碳”目标的关键。利用中国碳核算数据库的分部门核算碳排放清单和省份排放清单，对2004—2021年间中国制造业整体与各省（自治区、直辖市）制造业碳排放和碳脱钩进行分析。研究发现，从整体上看，制造业碳排放总量呈近似“倒U”型变化趋势，制造业碳排放强度显著下降，制造业碳排放逐渐由弱脱钩转向强脱钩状态。因此，无论是从碳排放总量还是从碳排放强度或者碳排放脱钩状态来看，中国制造业整体上绿色发展成效初显。分省（自治区、直辖市）来看，不同地区制造业碳排放差异巨大，碳脱钩状态呈现明显的分化趋势。为推动中国制造业持续碳脱钩，加快碳达峰和碳中和，应提高制造业发展质量、加快绿色技术的研发和落地、推行差异化脱钩政策和碳排放约束、严防碳排放跨地区转移。更多还原

【Abstract】 Promoting carbon reduction and decoupling in the manufacturing industry is the key to achieving the “dual carbon” goals. Using the sectoral accounting carbon emission inventory and provincial emission inventory of China Emission Accounts and Datasets, we analyze the overall carbon emissions and carbon decoupling of China’s manufacturing industry and each province’s manufacturing industry from 2004 to 2021. Research found that, generally, the total carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry show an approximately inverted U-shaped trend, with a significant decrease in the intensity of manufacturing carbon emissions, and manufacturing carbon emissions are gradually shifting from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. Therefore, whether from the perspective of total carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, or carbon emission decoupling status, the overall green development effect of China’s manufacturing industry has begun to show. As for different provinces, there is a huge difference in carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in different regions, and the state of carbon decoupling shows a clear trend of differentiation. To promote the sustained carbon decoupling of China’s manufacturing industry, accelerate carbon peak and carbon neutrality, we should improve the quality of manufacturing development, accelerate the research and implementation of green technologies, implement differentiated decoupling policies and carbon emission constraints, and strictly prevent the cross regional transfer of carbon emissions.更多还原