【摘要】 未来产业规划引导与高等教育学科布局间的动态适配，是国家创新体系效能提升和新质生产力形成的重要前置条件。当前，两者间的协调滞后与结构错配已经成为制约地方高质量发展的潜在瓶颈。为此，通过构建未来产业规划引导方向和高等教育学科布局方向两个综合指标，在聚焦未来产业六大方向的基础上，采用修正后的耦合协调度模型测量了“十四五”期间两者间的结构性匹配情况，并结合聚类分析识别省域层面的差异化类型特征，对照外部评价结果检验耦合协调与创新发展的关联意义。结果表明：代表性省市整体处于勉强协调过渡和中度协调发展的结构转型早期阶段，省际差异显著且引领方式各异；六大未来产业细分领域的耦合协调水平普遍偏低，表现出结构性分化现状；识别出重点突破型、均衡协同型、追赶适配型三类模式，反映了不同省份在未来产业发展规划引导方向与高等教育学科布局响应方式上的结构性差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dynamic alignment between the guiding orientation of future industries and the structural configuration of higher education disciplines is an important precondition influencing the efficiency of the national innovation system and the formation of new quality productive forces. At present, the lag in coordination and structural mismatch between the two subsystems has become a potential bottleneck restricting high-quality regional development. Therefore, this study constructs two composite indicators: the guiding direction of future industry planning and the layout direction of higher education disciplines. Focusing on six major directions of future industries, a modified coupling coordination degree model is employed to measure the structural matching between the two systems during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. Cluster analysis is further applied to identify differentiated provincial-level matching patterns, and the results are compared with external evaluation outcomes to examine the association between coupling coordination and future industry innovation performance. The results show that representative provinces are generally in the early stage of structural transformation between reluctant coordination and moderate coordination, with significant inter-provincial differences and varying leading patterns. The coupling and coordination levels across the six subfields of future industries are generally low, reflecting a current state of structural differentiation. Three provincial development models are identified, including key breakthrough type, balanced coordination type, and catching-up adaptation type, reflecting structural differences in how provincial governments’ planning guidance aligns with higher education discipline responses.更多还原