【摘要】 在全球贸易政策不确定性日益上升的背景下，企业需要调整其供应链配置决策以规避风险保障经营，这既是企业供应链管理的重要内容，又是保障中国产业链供应链安全稳定、自主可控的微观基础。文章利用2008—2022年中国上市公司数据，采用文本分析法测算企业贸易政策不确定性感知，并检验企业供应链配置受贸易政策不确定性感知的影响。研究发现，企业感知贸易政策不确定性的上升推动供应链上游配置多元化、下游配置集中化，凸显对供应链上下游配置的非对称影响。影响机制分析发现，当供求协调成本越高、关系专用性投入越低、相对议价能力越低时，非对称效应会被放大。进一步分析发现，在合作关系黏性和供应链信息摩擦视角下，贸易政策不确定性感知对供应链上游配置的多元化效应在低市场化地区、高竞争行业、资源优势较高企业、高透明度企业以及本土企业中更显著；对下游配置的集中化效应在高市场化地区、高竞争行业、资源优势较低企业、低透明度企业以及非出口企业中更显著。文章为企业应对贸易政策不确定性风险，提升中国产业链供应链韧性、安全稳定和自主可控水平提供了经验证据和政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the backdrop of increasing global trade policy uncertainty, ensuring the security of industrial and supply chains has become a strategic core for China’s construction of a new development pattern of “dual circulation”. A key issue is how micro-level enterprises perceive and respond to external shocks by adjusting their supply chain configurations to mitigate risks. Existing research often relies on macro-level indicators, overlooking firms’ subjective perceptions and the asymmetric strategies they may adopt for their upstream(procurement) and downstream(sales) chains. To fill this research gap, this paper utilizes the annual reports of China’s A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022. By employing textual analysis, it constructs a firmlevel index for the perception of trade policy uncertainty(TPU) to accurately capture the risk perception of micro-entities. The results show that a rise in perceived trade policy uncertainty leads to a significant asymmetric effect: Firms tend to drive the diversification of their upstream(supplier) configurations to disperse the risks of supply disruptions and price volatility, while simultaneously promoting the concentration of their downstream(customer) configurations to secure key sales channels and stabilize revenue sources. Mechanism testing indicates that this asymmetric adjustment of upstream diversification and downstream concentration is significantly amplified when supply-demand coordination costs are higher, relationship-specific investments are lower, or relative bargaining power is weaker. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that characteristics at the regional, industrial, and firm levels—such as the stickiness of collaborative relationships and supply chain information friction—also differentially affect firms’ supply chain adjustment strategies. From the micro perspective of firms’ subjective perceptions, this paper provides new evidence for understanding the impact of trade uncertainty on corporate behavior, systematically revealing the asymmetry of supply chain configurations and its underlying mechanisms. The conclusions not only offer practical guidance for firms in building resilient and flexible supply chain systems, but also provide an important reference for governments in formulating differentiated support policies to enhance the security of industrial and supply chains.更多还原